Select Language

AUD/USD drifts below 0.6500 with the Dollar picking up ahead of the NFP report

Breaking news

AUD/USD drifts below 0.6500 with the Dollar picking up ahead of the NFP report

  • X
  • facebook
  • LINE
  • RSS

  • X
  • facebook
  • LINE
  • RSS
update 2025.06.06 19:46
AUD/USD drifts below 0.6500 with the Dollar picking up ahead of the NFP report

update 2025.06.06 19:46

  • FX traders are paring back their USD short positions ahead of the US NFP release.
  • US Nonfarm Payrolls are expected to show a 130,000 increase in May.
  • A weaker-than-expected reading might heighten hopes of Fed easing and send the USD lower.


The Australian Dollar extends losses below 0.6500 on Friday as traders trim their US Dollar short positions ahead of the US Nonfarm Payrolls report. The pair's broader trend remains positive, but the double top at 0.6530 hints at a strong resistance area.

All eyes today are on the US Nonfarm payrolls report, which will be observed with particular interest, after a string of negative US releases earlier this week revived fears of a recession.

Market forecasts anticipate a 130,000 increment on private employment in May, following a 177,000 rise in April, with the Unemployment Rate steady at the previous 4.2% level.

Downbeat NFP figures might boost hopes of Fed easing

Earlier this week, ADP Employment figures showed a much lower than expected reading, 37k against the 115K expected. Beyond that, Manufacturing activity contracted beyond forecasts and, unexpectedly, the Services sector showed a similar picture. After these figures, markets are wondering whether a 130K increase in Payrolls is not too optimistic a view.

Another weak release today will increase concerns about the US economic momentum and might convince the Fed to abandon its neutral stance and lower interest rates further to avoid a deeper economic slowdown. This might add pressure on the USD.

The Australian calendar has been light today, although the impact of a softer-than-expected Australian GDP and the RBA's dovish minutes has been minimal, with US economic data and Trump's ongoing tariff saga as the main market movers this week.

Nonfarm Payrolls FAQs

Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) are part of the US Bureau of Labor Statistics monthly jobs report. The Nonfarm Payrolls component specifically measures the change in the number of people employed in the US during the previous month, excluding the farming industry.

The Nonfarm Payrolls figure can influence the decisions of the Federal Reserve by providing a measure of how successfully the Fed is meeting its mandate of fostering full employment and 2% inflation. A relatively high NFP figure means more people are in employment, earning more money and therefore probably spending more. A relatively low Nonfarm Payrolls' result, on the either hand, could mean people are struggling to find work. The Fed will typically raise interest rates to combat high inflation triggered by low unemployment, and lower them to stimulate a stagnant labor market.

Nonfarm Payrolls generally have a positive correlation with the US Dollar. This means when payrolls' figures come out higher-than-expected the USD tends to rally and vice versa when they are lower. NFPs influence the US Dollar by virtue of their impact on inflation, monetary policy expectations and interest rates. A higher NFP usually means the Federal Reserve will be more tight in its monetary policy, supporting the USD.

Nonfarm Payrolls are generally negatively-correlated with the price of Gold. This means a higher-than-expected payrolls' figure will have a depressing effect on the Gold price and vice versa. Higher NFP generally has a positive effect on the value of the USD, and like most major commodities Gold is priced in US Dollars. If the USD gains in value, therefore, it requires less Dollars to buy an ounce of Gold. Also, higher interest rates (typically helped higher NFPs) also lessen the attractiveness of Gold as an investment compared to staying in cash, where the money will at least earn interest.

Nonfarm Payrolls is only one component within a bigger jobs report and it can be overshadowed by the other components. At times, when NFP come out higher-than-forecast, but the Average Weekly Earnings is lower than expected, the market has ignored the potentially inflationary effect of the headline result and interpreted the fall in earnings as deflationary. The Participation Rate and the Average Weekly Hours components can also influence the market reaction, but only in seldom events like the "Great Resignation" or the Global Financial Crisis.



Date

Created

 : 2025.06.06

Update

Last updated

 : 2025.06.06

Related articles


Show more

FXStreet

Financial media

arrow
FXStreet

FXStreet is a forex information website, delivering market analysis and news articles 24/7.
It features a number of articles contributed by well-known analysts, in addition to the ones by its editorial team.
Founded in 2000 by Francesc Riverola, a Spanish economist, it has grown to become a world-renowned information website.

Was this article helpful?

We hope you find this article useful. Any comments or suggestions will be greatly appreciated.  
We are also looking for writers with extensive experience in forex and crypto to join us.

please contact us at [email protected].

Thank you for your feedback.
Thank you for your feedback.

Most viewed

Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD dips below $36.20 after bearish reversal, US yields rebound

 Silver price sinks more than 1% on Friday, ahead of the weekend, after refreshing five-day highs of $36.83, ahead of $37.00. At the time of writing, XAG/USD trades at $36.16 due to a slight recovery in the US dollar and rising US Treasury yields.
New
update2025.06.28 05:57

Canadian Dollar snaps lower after Trump pulls the plug on trade talks with Canada

The Canadian Dollar (CAD) backslid on Friday, falling back on a combination of weakening Canadian Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth metrics and fresh trade tensions with US President Donald Trump.
New
update2025.06.28 05:43

EUR/USD slips below 1.1700 as core PCE tops estimates, Eurozone data mixed

The EUR/USD retreats from yearly highs above 1.1750, tumbling below 1.1700 despite market participants being convinced that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will cut rates at the September meeting.
New
update2025.06.28 05:39

AUD/USD retreats from YTD highs as risk sentiment steadies, US Dollar firms

The Australian Dollar (AUD) is pulling back from weekly highs against the US Dollar (USD) on Friday.
New
update2025.06.28 04:37

Dow Jones Industrial Average accelerates into the high end as interest rate cut bets climb

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) gained ground on Friday, driven by a combination of investor expectations that the US will figure out how to secure trade deals that circumvent its own ringfence of threatened tariffs, and rising expectations of more rate cuts from the Federal Reserve (Fed) by
New
update2025.06.28 03:50

NZD/USD holds below YTD peak, capped in rising wedge pattern

NZD/USD struggles to extend its recent advance on Friday, hovering near 0.6045 after an intraday high of 0.6079. The pair remains trapped inside a rising wedge formation, typically a bearish signal, as the broadly weak US Dollar steadies.
New
update2025.06.28 03:23

WTI Crude Oil posts largest weekly drop since March 2023

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Crude Oil has fallen sharply since reaching a high of $76.44 on Monday, with prices declining more than $10.00 per barrel this week.
New
update2025.06.28 03:19

Gold plunges below $3,300 as risk appetite surges on China trade deal, Middle East diplomacy

Gold price tumbled over 1.50% on Friday amid an improvement in risk appetite, driven by several factors.
New
update2025.06.28 02:40

EUR/USD hits multi-year highs as USD struggles despite hotter PCE print

The Euro (EUR) climbs for an eighth consecutive day against the US Dollar (USD) on Friday, as the Greenback remains under pressure amid a combination of political and economic headwinds.
New
update2025.06.28 01:44

Tensions on the Copper market - Commerzbank

According to the International Copper Study Group, the Copper market slipped from a supply surplus to a supply deficit of 50 thousand tons in April, Commerzbank's Head of FX and Commodity Research Thu Lan Nguyen notes.
New
update2025.06.28 01:34

Disclaimer:arw

All information and content provided on this website is provided for informational purposes only and is not intended to solicit any investment. Although all efforts are made in order to ensure that the information is correct, no guarantee is provided for the accuracy of any content on this website. Any decision made shall be the responsibility of the investor and Myforex does not take any responsibility whatsoever regarding the use of any information provided herein.

The content provided on this website belongs to Myforex and, where stated, the relevant licensors. All rights are reserved by Myforex and the relevant licensors, and no content of this website, whether in full or in part, shall be copied or displayed elsewhere without the explicit written permission of the relevant copyright holder. If you wish to use any part of the content provided on this website, please ensure that you contact Myforex.

  • Facebook
  • Twitter
  • LINE

Myforex uses cookies to improve the convenience and functionality of this website. This website may include cookies not only by us but also by third parties (advertisers, log analysts, etc.) for the purpose of tracking the activities of users. Cookie policy

I agree
share
Share
Cancel