Select Language

EUR: No big surprises from the ECB - Commerzbank

Breaking news

EUR: No big surprises from the ECB - Commerzbank

  • X
  • facebook
  • LINE
  • RSS

  • X
  • facebook
  • LINE
  • RSS
New update 2025.06.05 17:51
EUR: No big surprises from the ECB - Commerzbank

update 2025.06.05 17:51

The market is convinced that the ECB will cut its key rates by another 25 basis points today. This will lower the deposit rate to 2.00%. ECB Council members have signaled such a move too often in recent weeks - only a few super hawks such as Robert Holzmann of the Austrian National Bank have expressed reservations, Commerzbank's FX analyst Antje Praefcke notes.

ECB to lower rates one last time in September to 1.75%

"At the same time, the ECB is likely to lower its growth and inflation forecasts for 2025 slightly, which would underpin the interest rate move. These forecast changes are likely to be based on the expected growth-dampening effect of US tariffs and lower energy prices. The stronger Euro may also be mentioned, as it further reduces inflationary risks. The inflation figures for May, which were published the day before yesterday, are entirely in line with this - they provide an excellent basis for a revision of the projections and today's cut. The ECB meeting will therefore be in line with market expectations and have little impact on the Euro."

"The question is, at most, what the ECB might envisage for later in the year. Our experts assume that the c. This is supported by growth concerns and inflation, which could even remain below the 2% target for a short period. In the medium term, however, the ECB is likely to assume that the trade war will tend to push up prices, meaning that inflation will pick up again if the tariffs are introduced. The ECB is therefore likely to adopt a wait-and-see approach after its last interest rate step in the fall."

"However, following the inflation figures released on Tuesday, the market currently sees a chance that the ECB could take one more step before the end of the year, bringing the deposit rate to 1.50%. Until then, however, anything is possible in these uncertain times (keyword: US tariff policy). At least a dovish surprise from the ECB is not really possible today. This also suggests that the Euro will show little reaction to the interest rate decision."


Date

Created

 : 2025.06.05

Update

Last updated

 : 2025.06.05

Related articles


Show more

FXStreet

Financial media

arrow
FXStreet

FXStreet is a forex information website, delivering market analysis and news articles 24/7.
It features a number of articles contributed by well-known analysts, in addition to the ones by its editorial team.
Founded in 2000 by Francesc Riverola, a Spanish economist, it has grown to become a world-renowned information website.

Was this article helpful?

We hope you find this article useful. Any comments or suggestions will be greatly appreciated.  
We are also looking for writers with extensive experience in forex and crypto to join us.

please contact us at [email protected].

Thank you for your feedback.
Thank you for your feedback.

Most viewed

US Pres. Trump: Borrowing costs should be much lower

United States (US) President Donald Trump took to social media to call upon Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Jerome Powell to lower interest rates on Friday.
New
update2025.06.06 23:16

Silver smashes $35 in Asia futures breakout - TDS

Like a thief in the night, Silver prices broke through $35/oz. Last time Silver broke this range, it took roughly 6 weeks to trade $50/oz, TDS' Senior Commodity Strategist Daniel Ghali notes.
New
update2025.06.06 23:05

Chinese SHFE Gold traders hit record-high positioning - TDS

Despite muted ETF flows and flat Western macro participation, positioning data shows Chinese Gold speculators pushing SHFE Gold to record highs, setting the stage for a potentially range-bound market -- with several bullish catalysts looming, TDS' Senior Commodity Strategist Daniel Ghali notes.
New
update2025.06.06 22:54

EUR/USD retreats below 1.1400 after US NFP data

Following a quiet beginning to the European session, EUR/USD turned south in the second half of the day and declined below 1.1400. At the time of press, EUR/USD was down 0.55% on the day at 1.1382.
New
update2025.06.06 22:49

GBP/JPY Price Forecast: Bullish momentum builds after rising above 195.00

The Japanese Yen (JPY) continues to weaken against the British Pound (GBP) on Friday, with the GBP/JPY pair edging up to near 195.20 at the time of writing. 
New
update2025.06.06 22:09

USD/INR slips as RBI delivers surprise 50 bps interest-rate cut, markets cheer dovish pivot

The Indian Rupee (INR) strengthens slightly against the United States Dollar (USD) on Friday, despite a surprise 50-basis-point (bps) interest-rate cut by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI).
New
update2025.06.06 21:17

Gold treads water with US NFP and US-China trade talks in focus

Gold (XAU/USD) has fallen back into a narrow range of consolidation on Friday, trading around $3,363 at the time of writing and with Investors remaining on high alert ahead of the Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report release.
New
update2025.06.06 21:13

IEA expects rising investments in low-emission energies, decline in Oil investments - Commerzbank

The International Energy Agency published a report on investments in the energy sector yesterday, Commerzbank's commodity analyst Carsten Fritsch notes.
New
update2025.06.06 20:57

JPY is underperforming on the day - Scotiabank

Japanese Yen (JPY) is down 0.4% vs. the US Dollar (USD) and underperforming all of the G10 currencies in an environment of modest USD strength.
New
update2025.06.06 20:55

GBP down modestly from Thursday's multi-year high - Scotiabank

Pound Sterling (GBP) is also down 0.2% vs. the US Dollar (USD) with a modest pullback from Thursday's fresh multi-year high, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes.
New
update2025.06.06 20:52

Disclaimer:arw

All information and content provided on this website is provided for informational purposes only and is not intended to solicit any investment. Although all efforts are made in order to ensure that the information is correct, no guarantee is provided for the accuracy of any content on this website. Any decision made shall be the responsibility of the investor and Myforex does not take any responsibility whatsoever regarding the use of any information provided herein.

The content provided on this website belongs to Myforex and, where stated, the relevant licensors. All rights are reserved by Myforex and the relevant licensors, and no content of this website, whether in full or in part, shall be copied or displayed elsewhere without the explicit written permission of the relevant copyright holder. If you wish to use any part of the content provided on this website, please ensure that you contact Myforex.

  • Facebook
  • Twitter
  • LINE

Myforex uses cookies to improve the convenience and functionality of this website. This website may include cookies not only by us but also by third parties (advertisers, log analysts, etc.) for the purpose of tracking the activities of users. Cookie policy

I agree
share
Share
Cancel