USD: Dollar rebounds, trade and ISM in focus - ING

The US Dollar (USD) showed resilience despite the late-session bounce in Treasury yields, supported by strong April JOLTS job openings. That said, the JOLTS data adds little to the overall jobs picture: the labour market remains tight, while declining quits suggest wage growth is easing. The dollar's rebound appears more a reflection of markets struggling to justify an already elevated risk premium without fresh negative developments on trade or Treasury fronts, ING's FX analyst Francesco Pesole notes.

USD to come under renewed pressure

"Markets may also be adopting a slightly more optimistic stance on US-China trade tensions ahead of the scheduled Trump-Xi call this week. Recently, such direct talks have eased trade pressures, and in our view, there is potential for a temporary uptick in the dollar after the event. Still, this may not trigger a sustained rally."

"Trump's 50% tariffs on steel and aluminium are now official, and a conciliatory tone between Trump and Xi Jinping may not result in any real breakthrough in negotiations. Trump said this morning in a social media post that he "likes" President Xi, but he is also "extremely hard to make a deal with". At the time of writing, there are no indications that the call between the two leaders has already taken place."

"Attention today centres on the US ISM services index, with consensus expecting a modest rise to 52.0 from April's 51.6, though recent weak manufacturing data may have tempered expectations. The ADP payrolls report is also in focus and is forecast to accelerate from 62k to 114k, signalling a solid jobs report on Friday. The Fed's Beige Book release this evening may also influence sentiment. We would be cautious about jumping back into USD shorts before the Trump-Xi call has happened. After that, we expect the dollar to come under renewed pressure."