Select Language

USD: Risk environment softens on trade confrontation - ING

Breaking news

USD: Risk environment softens on trade confrontation - ING

  • X
  • facebook
  • LINE
  • RSS

  • X
  • facebook
  • LINE
  • RSS
update 2025.06.02 19:36
USD: Risk environment softens on trade confrontation - ING

update 2025.06.02 19:36

Global equity markets and the dollar start the week a little softer as trade tensions between the US and China start to reappear. It's not quite fair to say that the US-China trade deal reached in Geneva last month is unravelling, but both sides clearly seem frustrated. Social media posts from US President Donald Trump on Friday and comments made in the Chinese state media today both express frustration that trade commitments have not been adhered to. Any early end to the deal, which lasts until 12 August, would hit risk assets and the dollar again, ING's FX analyst Chris Turner notes.

DXY can edge down towards the 98.70 area

"Another, more indirect factor that may be keeping the dollar soft is the threat of a Section 899 'revenge tax', which is currently in President Trump's tax bill working its way through Congress. The idea here is that the US can employ a retaliatory tax of up to 20% on any country's residents employing 'discriminatory' taxes. There is a lot of legalese here in terms of definitions of these taxes, but one of these is the Digital Services Tax, currently employed in much of Europe and places like India and Taiwan, too."

"In theory, if these countries do not remove these discriminatory taxes in time, a new withholding tax on gross income (interest, dividends and royalties) could be applied from the start of next year should the bill go through Congress. The Senate looks at this this week. This all adds to the narrative of the potential divestment of US assets - something we'll be tracking closely as the data emerges."

"In terms of data this week, there's a big focus on jobs (job openings on Tuesday and payrolls Friday), plus business surveys starting with ISM manufacturing today. We'll also have quite a few Federal Reserve speakers and get the Fed's Beige Book on Wednesday. In terms of the latest Fed views, Christopher Waller gave a speech in Asia earlier today, once again as a proponent of rate cuts later this year. In terms of current market pricing, 53bp of Fed rate cuts are expected this year. Even though the speculative market is quite short dollars already, the bearish overhang suggests DXY can edge down towards the 98.70 area, barring a big positive spike in the ISM today."


Date

Created

 : 2025.06.02

Update

Last updated

 : 2025.06.02

Related articles


Show more

FXStreet

Financial media

arrow
FXStreet

FXStreet is a forex information website, delivering market analysis and news articles 24/7.
It features a number of articles contributed by well-known analysts, in addition to the ones by its editorial team.
Founded in 2000 by Francesc Riverola, a Spanish economist, it has grown to become a world-renowned information website.

Was this article helpful?

We hope you find this article useful. Any comments or suggestions will be greatly appreciated.  
We are also looking for writers with extensive experience in forex and crypto to join us.

please contact us at [email protected].

Thank you for your feedback.
Thank you for your feedback.

Most viewed

Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD dips below $36.20 after bearish reversal, US yields rebound

 Silver price sinks more than 1% on Friday, ahead of the weekend, after refreshing five-day highs of $36.83, ahead of $37.00. At the time of writing, XAG/USD trades at $36.16 due to a slight recovery in the US dollar and rising US Treasury yields.
New
update2025.06.28 05:57

Canadian Dollar snaps lower after Trump pulls the plug on trade talks with Canada

The Canadian Dollar (CAD) backslid on Friday, falling back on a combination of weakening Canadian Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth metrics and fresh trade tensions with US President Donald Trump.
New
update2025.06.28 05:43

EUR/USD slips below 1.1700 as core PCE tops estimates, Eurozone data mixed

The EUR/USD retreats from yearly highs above 1.1750, tumbling below 1.1700 despite market participants being convinced that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will cut rates at the September meeting.
New
update2025.06.28 05:39

AUD/USD retreats from YTD highs as risk sentiment steadies, US Dollar firms

The Australian Dollar (AUD) is pulling back from weekly highs against the US Dollar (USD) on Friday.
New
update2025.06.28 04:37

Dow Jones Industrial Average accelerates into the high end as interest rate cut bets climb

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) gained ground on Friday, driven by a combination of investor expectations that the US will figure out how to secure trade deals that circumvent its own ringfence of threatened tariffs, and rising expectations of more rate cuts from the Federal Reserve (Fed) by
New
update2025.06.28 03:50

NZD/USD holds below YTD peak, capped in rising wedge pattern

NZD/USD struggles to extend its recent advance on Friday, hovering near 0.6045 after an intraday high of 0.6079. The pair remains trapped inside a rising wedge formation, typically a bearish signal, as the broadly weak US Dollar steadies.
New
update2025.06.28 03:23

WTI Crude Oil posts largest weekly drop since March 2023

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Crude Oil has fallen sharply since reaching a high of $76.44 on Monday, with prices declining more than $10.00 per barrel this week.
New
update2025.06.28 03:19

Gold plunges below $3,300 as risk appetite surges on China trade deal, Middle East diplomacy

Gold price tumbled over 1.50% on Friday amid an improvement in risk appetite, driven by several factors.
New
update2025.06.28 02:40

EUR/USD hits multi-year highs as USD struggles despite hotter PCE print

The Euro (EUR) climbs for an eighth consecutive day against the US Dollar (USD) on Friday, as the Greenback remains under pressure amid a combination of political and economic headwinds.
New
update2025.06.28 01:44

Tensions on the Copper market - Commerzbank

According to the International Copper Study Group, the Copper market slipped from a supply surplus to a supply deficit of 50 thousand tons in April, Commerzbank's Head of FX and Commodity Research Thu Lan Nguyen notes.
New
update2025.06.28 01:34

Disclaimer:arw

All information and content provided on this website is provided for informational purposes only and is not intended to solicit any investment. Although all efforts are made in order to ensure that the information is correct, no guarantee is provided for the accuracy of any content on this website. Any decision made shall be the responsibility of the investor and Myforex does not take any responsibility whatsoever regarding the use of any information provided herein.

The content provided on this website belongs to Myforex and, where stated, the relevant licensors. All rights are reserved by Myforex and the relevant licensors, and no content of this website, whether in full or in part, shall be copied or displayed elsewhere without the explicit written permission of the relevant copyright holder. If you wish to use any part of the content provided on this website, please ensure that you contact Myforex.

  • Facebook
  • Twitter
  • LINE

Myforex uses cookies to improve the convenience and functionality of this website. This website may include cookies not only by us but also by third parties (advertisers, log analysts, etc.) for the purpose of tracking the activities of users. Cookie policy

I agree
share
Share
Cancel