Select Language

USD/INR gains momentum on RBI rate cut bets

Breaking news

USD/INR gains momentum on RBI rate cut bets

  • X
  • facebook
  • LINE
  • RSS

  • X
  • facebook
  • LINE
  • RSS
update 2025.06.02 11:37
USD/INR gains momentum on RBI rate cut bets

update 2025.06.02 11:37

  • Indian Rupee weakens in Monday's Asian session. 
  • Higher oil prices and RBI rate cut bets weigh on the INR, but stronger GDP data from India might cap its downside.  
  • Traders await the US May ISM Manufacturing PMI data later on Monday ahead of the RBI rate decision. 

The Indian Rupee (INR) extends the decline on Monday. A rise in crude oil prices drags the Indian currency lower. It's worth noting that India is the world's third-largest oil consumer, and higher crude oil prices tend to have a negative impact on the INR value. Additionally, the rising expectation that the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) will deliver a third straight 25 basis points (bps) rate cut to boost growth might cap the INR's upside in the near term.

Nonetheless, the upbeat India's Q1 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) report could boost equities and lift the local currency both via portfolio inflows and sentiment. Looking ahead, traders will keep an eye on the US May ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) report, which is due later on Monday. On Friday, the RBI interest rate decision and the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data will be in the spotlight. 

Traders will also closely monitor a trade negotiation between the United States (US) and India, which is officially expected to conclude by fall. US President Donald Trump slapped tariffs of up to 27% on Indian goods on April 2 and a 90-day tariff pause on these ends on July 9.

Indian Rupee softens despite upbeat India's GDP report

  • India's economy grew by 7.4% YoY in the first quarter of 2025, up from 6.2% the previous quarter and significantly beating analyst expectations of 6.7%.
  • India remains the world's fastest-growing major economy, though growth has sharply declined from the 9.2% high recorded in the financial year 2023-24.
  • Net Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) into India declined to $0.35 billion in 2024-25, the lowest level in two decades, as rising outbound foreign investment and repatriation by Indian enterprises offset the inbound investment.
  • The Indian rupee is emerging as Asia's worst performer this quarter and may continue to lag peers as the RBI aims to avert a depletion in its foreign exchange reserves, according to analysts.
  • India's foreign exchange reserves stood at about $693 billion as of May 23, down from the all-time high of $705 billion reached in September last year.
  • The US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index rose 2.1% year on year in April, compared to 2.3% in March, the US Bureau of Economic Analysis showed on Friday. This figure came in below the market consensus of 2.2%.

USD/INR keeps the bearish vibe in the longer term


The Indian Rupee trades in negative territory for the fifth consecutive day. However, the USD/INR pair remains capped below the key 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) on the daily timeframe, indicating that the path of least resistance is to the downside. In the near term, further consolidation cannot be ruled out, with the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovering around the midline.

USD/INR seems to be finding initial support at 84.78, the low of May 26. A break below the mentioned level could set off a drop toward 84.61, the low of May 12. The next bearish target to watch is 84.00, the psychological level and the lower limit of the trend channel.

On the other hand, the key resistance level for the pair emerges in the 85.55-85.65 zone, representing the 100-day EMA and the upper boundary of the trend channel. Any follow-through buying could see a rally to 86.10, the high of May 22. 

Indian Rupee FAQs

The Indian Rupee (INR) is one of the most sensitive currencies to external factors. The price of Crude Oil (the country is highly dependent on imported Oil), the value of the US Dollar - most trade is conducted in USD - and the level of foreign investment, are all influential. Direct intervention by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) in FX markets to keep the exchange rate stable, as well as the level of interest rates set by the RBI, are further major influencing factors on the Rupee.

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) actively intervenes in forex markets to maintain a stable exchange rate, to help facilitate trade. In addition, the RBI tries to maintain the inflation rate at its 4% target by adjusting interest rates. Higher interest rates usually strengthen the Rupee. This is due to the role of the 'carry trade' in which investors borrow in countries with lower interest rates so as to place their money in countries' offering relatively higher interest rates and profit from the difference.

Macroeconomic factors that influence the value of the Rupee include inflation, interest rates, the economic growth rate (GDP), the balance of trade, and inflows from foreign investment. A higher growth rate can lead to more overseas investment, pushing up demand for the Rupee. A less negative balance of trade will eventually lead to a stronger Rupee. Higher interest rates, especially real rates (interest rates less inflation) are also positive for the Rupee. A risk-on environment can lead to greater inflows of Foreign Direct and Indirect Investment (FDI and FII), which also benefit the Rupee.

Higher inflation, particularly, if it is comparatively higher than India's peers, is generally negative for the currency as it reflects devaluation through oversupply. Inflation also increases the cost of exports, leading to more Rupees being sold to purchase foreign imports, which is Rupee-negative. At the same time, higher inflation usually leads to the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) raising interest rates and this can be positive for the Rupee, due to increased demand from international investors. The opposite effect is true of lower inflation.




Date

Created

 : 2025.06.02

Update

Last updated

 : 2025.06.02

Related articles


Show more

FXStreet

Financial media

arrow
FXStreet

FXStreet is a forex information website, delivering market analysis and news articles 24/7.
It features a number of articles contributed by well-known analysts, in addition to the ones by its editorial team.
Founded in 2000 by Francesc Riverola, a Spanish economist, it has grown to become a world-renowned information website.

Was this article helpful?

We hope you find this article useful. Any comments or suggestions will be greatly appreciated.  
We are also looking for writers with extensive experience in forex and crypto to join us.

please contact us at [email protected].

Thank you for your feedback.
Thank you for your feedback.

Most viewed

Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD dips below $36.20 after bearish reversal, US yields rebound

 Silver price sinks more than 1% on Friday, ahead of the weekend, after refreshing five-day highs of $36.83, ahead of $37.00. At the time of writing, XAG/USD trades at $36.16 due to a slight recovery in the US dollar and rising US Treasury yields.
New
update2025.06.28 05:57

Canadian Dollar snaps lower after Trump pulls the plug on trade talks with Canada

The Canadian Dollar (CAD) backslid on Friday, falling back on a combination of weakening Canadian Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth metrics and fresh trade tensions with US President Donald Trump.
New
update2025.06.28 05:43

EUR/USD slips below 1.1700 as core PCE tops estimates, Eurozone data mixed

The EUR/USD retreats from yearly highs above 1.1750, tumbling below 1.1700 despite market participants being convinced that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will cut rates at the September meeting.
New
update2025.06.28 05:39

AUD/USD retreats from YTD highs as risk sentiment steadies, US Dollar firms

The Australian Dollar (AUD) is pulling back from weekly highs against the US Dollar (USD) on Friday.
New
update2025.06.28 04:37

Dow Jones Industrial Average accelerates into the high end as interest rate cut bets climb

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) gained ground on Friday, driven by a combination of investor expectations that the US will figure out how to secure trade deals that circumvent its own ringfence of threatened tariffs, and rising expectations of more rate cuts from the Federal Reserve (Fed) by
New
update2025.06.28 03:50

NZD/USD holds below YTD peak, capped in rising wedge pattern

NZD/USD struggles to extend its recent advance on Friday, hovering near 0.6045 after an intraday high of 0.6079. The pair remains trapped inside a rising wedge formation, typically a bearish signal, as the broadly weak US Dollar steadies.
New
update2025.06.28 03:23

WTI Crude Oil posts largest weekly drop since March 2023

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Crude Oil has fallen sharply since reaching a high of $76.44 on Monday, with prices declining more than $10.00 per barrel this week.
New
update2025.06.28 03:19

Gold plunges below $3,300 as risk appetite surges on China trade deal, Middle East diplomacy

Gold price tumbled over 1.50% on Friday amid an improvement in risk appetite, driven by several factors.
New
update2025.06.28 02:40

EUR/USD hits multi-year highs as USD struggles despite hotter PCE print

The Euro (EUR) climbs for an eighth consecutive day against the US Dollar (USD) on Friday, as the Greenback remains under pressure amid a combination of political and economic headwinds.
New
update2025.06.28 01:44

Tensions on the Copper market - Commerzbank

According to the International Copper Study Group, the Copper market slipped from a supply surplus to a supply deficit of 50 thousand tons in April, Commerzbank's Head of FX and Commodity Research Thu Lan Nguyen notes.
New
update2025.06.28 01:34

Disclaimer:arw

All information and content provided on this website is provided for informational purposes only and is not intended to solicit any investment. Although all efforts are made in order to ensure that the information is correct, no guarantee is provided for the accuracy of any content on this website. Any decision made shall be the responsibility of the investor and Myforex does not take any responsibility whatsoever regarding the use of any information provided herein.

The content provided on this website belongs to Myforex and, where stated, the relevant licensors. All rights are reserved by Myforex and the relevant licensors, and no content of this website, whether in full or in part, shall be copied or displayed elsewhere without the explicit written permission of the relevant copyright holder. If you wish to use any part of the content provided on this website, please ensure that you contact Myforex.

  • Facebook
  • Twitter
  • LINE

Myforex uses cookies to improve the convenience and functionality of this website. This website may include cookies not only by us but also by third parties (advertisers, log analysts, etc.) for the purpose of tracking the activities of users. Cookie policy

I agree
share
Share
Cancel