No giving in from Kazakhstan: Will other key producers follow suit? - Commerzbank

The press statement following Wednesday's OPEC+ meeting was extremely short. In the end, all previous decisions were confirmed, including production quotas until December 2026 and the mandate for the Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC), Commerzbank's commodity analyst Barbara Lambrecht notes.

OPEC+ eyes further output hike at Saturday meeting

"The focus is now on Saturday's (virtual) meeting of the eight key producers, who have additionally cut back their production. According to delegates, a further increase in production is on the cards (see above). This is all the more likely given the latest statements by Kazakh Energy Minister Yerlan Akkenzhenov, who has apparently already informed OPEC that his country will not reduce production."

"Around 70% of the country's oil production is in the hands of international companies, which cannot be held to any commitments. According to the minister, further increases in production cannot be ruled out from September onwards."

"The Kazakh Deputy Energy Minister is also quoted as saying that a further increase in OPEC+ production is to be expected on Saturday, but that the exact figure has not yet been decided: 400, 500 or 600 thousand barrels per day. If production in July were to increase even more than in previous months, oil prices, which have already fallen slightly in the run-up to the meeting, are likely to come under further pressure."