Select Language

EUR/GBP spikes as markets cheer potential EU-US trade deal

Breaking news

EUR/GBP spikes as markets cheer potential EU-US trade deal

  • X
  • facebook
  • LINE
  • RSS

  • X
  • facebook
  • LINE
  • RSS
update 2025.05.30 03:52
EUR/GBP spikes as markets cheer potential EU-US trade deal

update 2025.05.30 03:52

  • EUR/GBP surges above prior psychological resistance at 0.8400.
  • Europe and the United States take steps toward a trade deal, boosting optimism.
  • EUR/GBP moves toward key 78.6% Fibonacci resistance level.

The Euro (EUR) is trading higher against the Pound Sterling (GBP) on Thursday, buoyed by news that the European Union (EU) and the United States (US) are making progress in trade talks. 

At the time of writing, EUR/GBP is trading above the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and is firmly supported above the key psychological level of 0.8400.

EU-US trade deal optimism boosts demand for the Euro

With US President Donald Trump's sweeping tariffs facing scrutiny by a US Federal Court, the Trump administration continues to appeal for tariffs to be imposed on major trading partners of the United States.

For the European Union, the 50% tariff threat announced by Trump last Friday sent markets into turmoil. However, the administration has appeared to have fast-tracked negotiations between the two nations.

Despite economic data out of the EU highlighting the fragility of the economy over recent weeks,  EU Trade Commissioner Maroš Šefčovič and US officials, including Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick and Trade Representative Jamieson Greer, appear to be making progress in their negotiations.

The EU has proposed a "zero-for-zero" tariff arrangement on industrial goods, including automobiles, and is open to increasing imports of US products such as soybeans, liquefied natural gas, and defense equipment.

Meanwhile, Trump is pushing for the EU to revise or remove specific non-tariff barriers, such as food safety regulations and digital services taxes, that the Trump administration considers impediments to fair and reciprocal trade.

ECB and BoE monetary policy divergence appears to be narrowing, supporting EUR/GBP

Additionally, monetary policy divergence between Europe and the United Kingdom appears to be narrowing.

According to a recent poll released by Reuters, 70% of economists anticipated the ECB to announce another 25 bps (0.25%) rate cut in June, with expectations that rates would remain steady thereafter.

Despite recent economic data out of the Eurozone this week warning that the economy is under pressure, technical levels have provided an additional catalyst for the EUR/GBP pair.

With a steady appreciation in today's session pushing prices toward 0.8428, this level aligns with the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement (Fib) level of the March-September 2022 move and has served as both support and resistance for prior historical moves.

EUR/GBP daily chart

GDP FAQs

A country's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) measures the rate of growth of its economy over a given period of time, usually a quarter. The most reliable figures are those that compare GDP to the previous quarter e.g Q2 of 2023 vs Q1 of 2023, or to the same period in the previous year, e.g Q2 of 2023 vs Q2 of 2022. Annualized quarterly GDP figures extrapolate the growth rate of the quarter as if it were constant for the rest of the year. These can be misleading, however, if temporary shocks impact growth in one quarter but are unlikely to last all year - such as happened in the first quarter of 2020 at the outbreak of the covid pandemic, when growth plummeted.

A higher GDP result is generally positive for a nation's currency as it reflects a growing economy, which is more likely to produce goods and services that can be exported, as well as attracting higher foreign investment. By the same token, when GDP falls it is usually negative for the currency. When an economy grows people tend to spend more, which leads to inflation. The country's central bank then has to put up interest rates to combat the inflation with the side effect of attracting more capital inflows from global investors, thus helping the local currency appreciate.

When an economy grows and GDP is rising, people tend to spend more which leads to inflation. The country's central bank then has to put up interest rates to combat the inflation. Higher interest rates are negative for Gold because they increase the opportunity-cost of holding Gold versus placing the money in a cash deposit account. Therefore, a higher GDP growth rate is usually a bearish factor for Gold price.


Date

Created

 : 2025.05.30

Update

Last updated

 : 2025.05.30

Related articles


Show more

FXStreet

Financial media

arrow
FXStreet

FXStreet is a forex information website, delivering market analysis and news articles 24/7.
It features a number of articles contributed by well-known analysts, in addition to the ones by its editorial team.
Founded in 2000 by Francesc Riverola, a Spanish economist, it has grown to become a world-renowned information website.

Was this article helpful?

We hope you find this article useful. Any comments or suggestions will be greatly appreciated.  
We are also looking for writers with extensive experience in forex and crypto to join us.

please contact us at [email protected].

Thank you for your feedback.
Thank you for your feedback.

Most viewed

USD/CAD posts modest losses below 1.3650 ahead of US PCE, Canadian GDP releases

The USD/CAD pair trades with mild losses near 1.3640 during the early Asian session on Friday. The US Dollar (USD) weakens against the Canadian Dollar (CAD) amid growing market concerns about the Federal Reserve's (Fed) independence.
New
update2025.06.27 08:44

Japan's Tokyo CPI inflation eases to 3.1% YoY in June

The headline Tokyo Consumer Price Index (CPI) for June rose 3.1% YoY as compared to 3.4% in the previous month, the Statistics Bureau of Japan showed on Friday.
New
update2025.06.27 08:33

Fed's Kashkari: Inflation is above 2%, have to get it back to target

Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis President Neel Kashkari said late Thursday that inflation is above 2% and it has to get it back to the 2% target.  
New
update2025.06.27 08:22

GBP/USD continues its march up the charts for a fourth straight day

GBP/USD rose on Thursday, stepping into a fourth straight day of firm gains and clipping 44-month highs near 1.3770. A broad sell-off in the US Dollar is bolstering the Greenback's major counter-currencies, helping to push Cable into its highest bids in nearly four years.
New
update2025.06.27 08:10

US says it reaches understanding to expedite rare earth exports from China

A White House official stated late Thursday that the United States (US) has reached an understanding with China on how to expedite rare earth shipments to the US, according to the Wall Street Journal.  
New
update2025.06.27 07:56

Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD steadies near $36.60 up over 1.80% weekly

Silver price turns flat as Friday's Asian session begins, trades near $36.60, virtually unchanged, compared to Thursday's June 26 daily close. The XAG/USD appears poised to close the week with gains of over 1.80%.
New
update2025.06.27 07:54

France's Macron: If US 10% tariff stays, Europe will respond by imposing an equivalent on US firms

French President Emmanuel Macron said late Thursday that if the United States (US) 10% tariff stays, Europe will retaliate by imposing an equivalent levy on US companies. 
New
update2025.06.27 07:45

EUR/USD hits 1.1744, nears four-year high as Fed cut bets grow, Trump eyes Powell successor

EUR/USD soars to nearly four-year highs on Thursday, extending its rally to five straight days, with the pair clearing the 1.1700 figure for the first time since September 2021.
New
update2025.06.27 07:39

Gold price stalls at $3,331 despite weak Dollar, strong US data caps gains

Gold price retreats on Thursday during the North American session, failing to gain traction amid a session characterized by a weak US Dollar, which is testing levels last seen in February 2022. The XAU/USD trades at $3,331 and prints modest losses of 0.05%.
New
update2025.06.27 04:41

Forex Today: US PCE readings gather all the attention

The Greenback retreated further and slipped back to levels last seen in March 2022 as fears over the Fed's independence weighed heavily on investors' sentiment while traders geared up for the release of extra inflation data on Friday.
New
update2025.06.27 04:31

Disclaimer:arw

All information and content provided on this website is provided for informational purposes only and is not intended to solicit any investment. Although all efforts are made in order to ensure that the information is correct, no guarantee is provided for the accuracy of any content on this website. Any decision made shall be the responsibility of the investor and Myforex does not take any responsibility whatsoever regarding the use of any information provided herein.

The content provided on this website belongs to Myforex and, where stated, the relevant licensors. All rights are reserved by Myforex and the relevant licensors, and no content of this website, whether in full or in part, shall be copied or displayed elsewhere without the explicit written permission of the relevant copyright holder. If you wish to use any part of the content provided on this website, please ensure that you contact Myforex.

  • Facebook
  • Twitter
  • LINE

Myforex uses cookies to improve the convenience and functionality of this website. This website may include cookies not only by us but also by third parties (advertisers, log analysts, etc.) for the purpose of tracking the activities of users. Cookie policy

I agree
share
Share
Cancel