USD/CHF Price Forecast: Stalls below 0.8300 after Fed minutes

• USD/CHF rises from two-month low but struggles to breach key 0.83 resistance.
• Fed minutes highlight rising stagflation risks, prompting traders to price in 45 bps of rate cuts.
• RSI turning higher hints at weakening bearish pressure; key support lies at 0.8200 and 0.8184.

The USD/CHF halts its advance after posting back-to-back days of gains that pushed the pair to its weekly high of 0.8290; yet, buyers remain in charge, even though the major is near its opening price at 0.8270.

The release of the latest Federal Reserve minutes showed that officials agreed that high economic uncertainty was enough to adopt a cautious stance regarding future adjustments to the Fed funds rate and acknowledged that stagflation risks had risen.

Following the announcement of the minutes, money markets had priced 45 basis points (bps) of easing by the Federal Reserve.

USD/CHF Price Forecast: Technical outlook

The USD/CHF remains downward biased despite registering a leg up that lifted the pair from around two-month lows of 0.8184 to the 0.83 mark.

Momentum, as measured by the Relative Strength Index (RSI), suggests that the pair remains bearish, but the RSI aiming steadily up could signal that bears are losing steam.

Given the backdrop, the USD/CHF first resistance would be the 0.83 psychological mark. Once surpassed, the next stop would be the May 1 high of 0.8332, followed by the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 0.8399. On further strength, the next ceiling level would be the month-to-date (MTD) peak of 0.8475.

Conversely, further USD/CHF weakness could push the spot price to 0.8200 and beneath the monthly low of 0.8184.

USD/CHF Price Chart - Daily