NZD/USD rallies to near 0.5960 as New Zealand Dollar outperforms across the board

• NZD/USD soars to near 0.5960 as the NZ Dollar outperforms its peers after upbeat domestic Q1 Retail Sales data.
• RBA Hauser is hopeful of resilient demand from China.
• The US Dollar declines amid fears of an increase in US fiscal imbalances.

The NZD/USD pair surges almost 1% to near 0.5960 during European trading hours on Friday. The Kiwi pair soars as the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) outperforms its peers on stronger-than-projected New Zealand (NZ) Q1 Retail Sales data.

Stats NZ reported that Retail Sales, a key measure of consumer spending, rose by 0.8%, faster than expectations of 0.1%, but slower than the 1% growth seen in the last quarter of 2024. Theoretically, strong Retail Sales data discourages the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) from lowering interest rates further. However, the RBNZ is expected to lower its Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 25 basis points (bps) to 3.25% in the policy meeting next week amid heightened growth concerns.

"Another 25bp rate cut by the RBNZ on May 28 seems likely. Markets are fully pricing it in, following the RBNZ's previous indications that growth remains a major concern," FX analysts at ING said last week.

Another reason behind the strength in the antipodean is increasing hopes of strong business from China in the near term. On Thursday, Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser stated that Australian exporters are "upbeat about the resilience of China demand". Given that the NZ economy is one of the leading trading partners of Beijing, signs of strong demand from the Asian giant strengthen the Kiwi dollar.

Meanwhile, a substantial weakness in the US Dollar (USD) on the back of growing United States (US) fiscal concerns has also strengthened the Kiwi pair. Investors have become worried over the US fiscal health due to a new bill by President Donald Trump, which comprises tax cuts and higher spending on defense and border enforcement. The new bill is expected to increase the national debt by $3.8 billion over a decade.

The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback's value against six major currencies, slumps to near the two-week low around 99.30.