USD/CAD Price Forecast: Holds position above 1.3800, barrier appears near nine-day EMA

• The USD/CAD pair is testing psychological support at 1.3800, with the next key level at the seven-month low of 1.3760.
• The 14-day RSI remains just above the 30 mark, signaling a continued bearish bias without reaching oversold conditions.
• A breakout above the nine-day EMA at 1.3839 could reinforce short-term bullish momentum.

The USD/CAD pair is remaining steady after registering gains in the previous session, trading around 1.3810 during the European hours on Monday. Technical analysis on the daily chart indicates a possible bullish shift in market sentiment, with the pair sustaining levels above the descending channel pattern.

Additionally, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers just above 30, reflecting a persistent bearish bias without entering oversold territory. The USD/CAD pair also remains below the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), suggesting weak short-term momentum. Further price action is needed to confirm the trend direction.

On the downside, the USD/CAD pair is testing the key psychological support at 1.3800, followed by the seven-month low of 1.3760, last seen on May 2, which sits just above the upper boundary of the descending channel. A clear move back into the channel would reinforce the bearish bias, potentially driving the pair toward the 1.3419 level -- its lowest since February 2024 -- with further support near the lower boundary of the channel around the 1.3320 area.

The USD/CAD pair faces initial resistance at the nine-day EMA of 1.3839. A decisive break above this level would strengthen short-term bullish momentum, potentially signaling a shift in bias. This could open the path toward the 50-day EMA at 1.4066, followed by the monthly high at 1.4415. Continued upside may then target the key resistance at 1.4793 -- the lowest level seen since April 2003.

USD/CAD: Daily Chart