AUD/USD falls to near 0.6380 despite robust Australian Trade Balance data

• AUD/USD ticks down to near 0.6380 as the Australian Dollar underperforms.
• Australian Trade Balance rose more than double than expectations as US firms loaded imports to avoid higher tariffs.
• Investors await the US Manufacturing PMI data for April.

The AUD/USD pair is down 0.3% to near 0.6380 in Thursday's European session. The Aussie pair trades back-and-forth around 0.6400 from over a week, with investors seeking clarity on when the United States (US)-China trade war will resolve.

The comments from the White House have indicated that the tariff tussle between the world's two largest powerhouses will not de-escalate in the near term. On Wednesday, US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer signaled in an interview with Fox News on Wednesday that no official discussions with Beijing are "underway", South China Morning Post (SCMP) reported.

The uncertainty over trade relations between the US and Beijing appears to remain for a while as Washington wants China to initiate trade talks, given their strong reliance on its exports to the US. "I believe that it's up to China to de-escalate, because they sell five times more to us than we sell to them, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said on Monday.

Longer the trade war between the US and China, larger will be consequences on the Australian Dollar (AUD), given that Australia is the leading trading partner of China.

In the domestic region, robust Australian Trade Balance data for March fails to support the Aussie Dollar.

The Trade Surplus came in at 6.9 billion, more than double than estimates of 3.13 billion. The reason behind strong Australian Trade Balance numbers appears to be robust imports by the US economy ahead of the announcement of reciprocal tariffs by President Donald Trump on April 2. The US Q1 GDP data showed an economic contraction as importers frontloaded goods from their foreign suppliers to escape higher tariffs.

In the US region, investors await the US final S&P Global and ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) data for April. Investors will pay close attention to the ISM Manufacturing Prices Paid to know whether the impact of Trump's protectionist policies has started feeding into input cost.