NZD/USD edges lower to near 0.5900 as US Dollar appreciates ahead of ISM Manufacturing PMI

• NZD/USD depreciates due to rising odds of an RBNZ 25 bps rate cut in the upcoming meeting.
• Investors remain focused on global trade developments, with particular attention on US-China relations.
• The US Dollar strengthens as traders adopt a cautious tone ahead of the US ISM Manufacturing PMI release.

The NZD/USD pair has trimmed its daily gains and is depreciating, trading near 0.5920 during the early European session on Thursday. The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) faces pressure as expectations mount for further monetary easing by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ). Markets are widely anticipating a 25 basis point rate cut at the upcoming RBNZ meeting, with rates projected to reach a low of 2.75% by October.

Investors continue to evaluate global trade dynamics, particularly developments in US-China relations. Earlier on Thursday, US President Donald Trump expressed optimism over a potential trade deal with China, stating there is a "very good probability we'll reach a deal." He stressed that any agreement must align with US interests. Trump also alluded to prospective trade agreements with India, South Korea, and Japan, while noting that a deal with Ukraine was finalized earlier in the day.

In a bid to ease trade tensions, China reportedly compiled a list of US-made goods exempt from its 125% tariffs, though it avoided making any public concessions. Additionally, China Central Television reported that the US has been engaging with Beijing through various diplomatic channels.

Meanwhile, the Greenback also drew support from disappointing US GDP data: the economy contracted by 0.3% annualized in Q1 2025, missing expectations for 0.4% growth and sharply lower than the previous quarter's 2.4% expansion.

On the inflation front, the core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index rose 2.6% year-on-year in March--matching forecasts but slightly slower than February's 2.8% gain. Traders are now closely watching the upcoming ISM Manufacturing PMI release for further cues on the USD's direction.