GBP/USD retreats from YTD high past 1.34 on Fed turmoil

• Trump's effort to oust Powell revives Fed credibility fears, limiting GBP/USD upside despite softer Dollar
• UK inflation and jobs data boost BoE cut bets; markets fully price May cut, 85 bps expected in 2025
• US Richmond Fed Index drops to -13, highlighting worsening industrial outlook and macro uncertainty

The Pound Sterling reverses its course after reaching a daily high of 1.3423 due to concerns over the Federal Reserve (Fed) independence, spurred by US President Donald Trump's harsh comments against Fed Chair Jerome Powell. At the time of writing, the GBP/USD is trading at 1.3383, up 0.17%.

GBP/USD retreats to 1.3354 as Fed independence fears and weak UK data drive mixed sentiment

Market participants continued to digest White House Economic Adviser Keving Hassett's comments about US President Donald Trump looking for ways to oust Powell. This pushed the GBP/USD to re-test the current year-to-date (YTD) peak before falling below 1.3400.

Softer than expected UK inflation data and a weak labor market had increased the chances that the Bank of England (BoE) could cut rates at the upcoming May meeting. The swaps markets had fully priced in that cut, and 85 basis points towards year-end.

Data-wise, the UK docket is empty, but the Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index deteriorated further in the US from -4 to -13, its lowest level since November.

GBP/USD Price Forecast: Technical outlook

From a technical perspective, the uptrend remains intact. Nevertheless, buyers' failure to achieve a daily close above 1.34 could pave the way for a deeper pullback, which could send prices lower. The first support was seen at 1.3300, followed by April's 7 low of 1.3202.

A breach of 1.3400 will sponsor the YTD high of 1.3423, with key resistance lying above at 1.35.