Dow Jones jumps 900 points on Tesla optimism, but Powell tensions keep market fragile

• Wall Street rebounds sharply; S&P 500 and Nasdaq gain 2.1% and 2.4% ahead of Tesla earnings release.
• Trump signals Fed to blame for any slowdown, as WSJ notes plan to scapegoat Powell over trade-driven weakness.
• Gold hits record $3,500 on safe-haven demand; DXY bounces to 98.56 after plunging to a three-year low at 97.92.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) recovered on Tuesday, gaining over 900 points or 2.49% above the 39,000 figure as investors await Tesla's (TSLA) earnings report late in the day. Despite this, the market mood remains fragile amid fears that the White House continues its harsh rhetoric regarding Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell.

DJIA rises 2% above 39,000, while investors weigh earnings optimism against Fed independence fears and trade uncertainty

Sentiment has improved, as depicted by the other two leading United States (US) equity indices, which are also rising. The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite gained 2.1% and 2.4%, respectively. Trump's comments had suggested that if the economy slows, it will be due to the Fed not cutting interest rates.

Wall Street Journal (WSJ) Nick Timiraos, a Fed watcher, wrote, "President Trump is signaling that he will blame the Federal Reserve for any economic weakness that results from his trade war if the central bank doesn't cut interest rates soon."

Uncertainty about US trade policies and Washington's threat to Fed independence drove investors to seek safety in haven assets. Gold reached a record high at $3,500, while appetite for the greenback has taken a hit, as the US Dollar hit a three-year low below the 98.00 handle on Monday.

The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the dollar's performance against a basket of six currencies, has recovered some ground. It is up at 98.56, up 0.25% after reaching a low of 97.92.

As of this writing, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent sees a de-escalation with China and an unsustainable situation, as revealed by Bloomberg.

Meanwhile, recent data suggested that traders are pricing in 91 basis points of Fed rate cuts toward the end of 2025.

Dow Jones price forecast

The DJIA downtrend remains in place, but traders have bought the dip and pushed the index past 39,200 on Bessent's comments. If buyers want to see 40,000, they must clear 39,500 first.

Conversely, bears need to drag the index below 39,000 for a bearish continuation, which would open the door for lower prices. The next support would be 38,500, followed by 38,000, ahead of testing the year-to-date (YTD) low of 36,614, which was hit on April 7.