Created
: 2025.04.18
2025.04.18 16:39
AUD/JPY retraces its recent gains from the previous session, trading around 90.80 during the European hours on Friday. The currency cross remains under pressure as the Australian Dollar (AUD) weakens in light trading, with local markets closed for the Good Friday holiday.
Minutes from the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) March 31-April 1 meeting highlighted uncertainty around the timing of the next interest rate move. While the Board viewed the May meeting as an appropriate time to reassess policy, it emphasized that no decision had been pre-committed. Risks to both economic growth and inflation remain balanced to the upside and downside.
Australia's March labor data showed the unemployment rate steady at 4.1%, but job gains missed expectations. This has fueled speculation of a potential 25 basis point rate cut in May, with some traders even considering a 50 basis point move amid growing concerns of a global slowdown tied to escalating tariffs.
In Japan, the National Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 3.6% YoY in March, marking three consecutive years above the Bank of Japan's (BoJ) 2% inflation target, though slightly below February's 3.7%. The "core-core" CPI--excluding fresh food and energy--accelerated to 2.9% from 2.6%, while core inflation (excluding only fresh food) rose to 3.2%, in line with forecasts.
These inflation readings come ahead of the BoJ's May 1 policy meeting, where the central bank is expected to maintain rates at 0.5% and potentially revise down its growth outlook as rising global trade tensions weigh on sentiment.
Interest rates are charged by financial institutions on loans to borrowers and are paid as interest to savers and depositors. They are influenced by base lending rates, which are set by central banks in response to changes in the economy. Central banks normally have a mandate to ensure price stability, which in most cases means targeting a core inflation rate of around 2%. If inflation falls below target the central bank may cut base lending rates, with a view to stimulating lending and boosting the economy. If inflation rises substantially above 2% it normally results in the central bank raising base lending rates in an attempt to lower inflation.
Higher interest rates generally help strengthen a country's currency as they make it a more attractive place for global investors to park their money.
Higher interest rates overall weigh on the price of Gold because they increase the opportunity cost of holding Gold instead of investing in an interest-bearing asset or placing cash in the bank. If interest rates are high that usually pushes up the price of the US Dollar (USD), and since Gold is priced in Dollars, this has the effect of lowering the price of Gold.
The Fed funds rate is the overnight rate at which US banks lend to each other. It is the oft-quoted headline rate set by the Federal Reserve at its FOMC meetings. It is set as a range, for example 4.75%-5.00%, though the upper limit (in that case 5.00%) is the quoted figure. Market expectations for future Fed funds rate are tracked by the CME FedWatch tool, which shapes how many financial markets behave in anticipation of future Federal Reserve monetary policy decisions.
Created
: 2025.04.18
Last updated
: 2025.04.18
FXStreet is a forex information website, delivering market analysis and news articles 24/7.
It features a number of articles contributed by well-known analysts, in addition to the ones by its editorial team.
Founded in 2000 by Francesc Riverola, a Spanish economist, it has grown to become a world-renowned information website.
We hope you find this article useful. Any comments or suggestions will be greatly appreciated.
We are also looking for writers with extensive experience in forex and crypto to join us.
please contact us at [email protected].
Disclaimer:
All information and content provided on this website is provided for informational purposes only and is not intended to solicit any investment. Although all efforts are made in order to ensure that the information is correct, no guarantee is provided for the accuracy of any content on this website. Any decision made shall be the responsibility of the investor and Myforex does not take any responsibility whatsoever regarding the use of any information provided herein.
The content provided on this website belongs to Myforex and, where stated, the relevant licensors. All rights are reserved by Myforex and the relevant licensors, and no content of this website, whether in full or in part, shall be copied or displayed elsewhere without the explicit written permission of the relevant copyright holder. If you wish to use any part of the content provided on this website, please ensure that you contact Myforex.
Myforex uses cookies to improve the convenience and functionality of this website. This website may include cookies not only by us but also by third parties (advertisers, log analysts, etc.) for the purpose of tracking the activities of users. Cookie policy