Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD retreats from weekly top, back below $31.00 ahead of US CPI

• Silver attracts some intraday sellers following an intraday uptick to a fresh weekly high.
• The technical setup favors bearish traders and supports prospects for additional losses.
• A move beyond the 50% Fibo. hurdle is needed to negate the near-term negative bias.

Silver (XAG/USD) struggles to capitalize on its modest intraday uptick and retreats slightly after touching a fresh weekly high, around the $31.30 region during the early European session on Thursday. The intraday selling picks up pace in the last hour and drags the white metal back below the $31.00 mark as traders now look forward to the US consumer inflation figures before placing fresh directional bets.

From a technical perspective, the XAG/USD now seems to have found acceptance above the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the recent slump from the March swing high to a fresh year-to-date low touched earlier this week. The subsequent move up, however, stalls ahead of the 50% Fibo. level. Moreover, oscillators on the daily chart - though they have been recovering from lower levels - are holding in negative territory. This, in turn, warrants some caution before positioning for an extension of the weekly uptrend from the $28.25 region, or the lowest level since September 2024.

In the meantime, any further slide below the 38.2% Fibo. level is likely to find some support near the $30.55 region. Some follow-through selling, however, could make the XAG/USD vulnerable to accelerate the fall towards the $30.00 psychological mark en route to the 23.6% Fibo. level, around the $29.80-$29.75 zone. Failure to defend the said support levels would shift the near-term bias back in favor of bearish traders. The white metal might then decline to the $29.35-$29.30 zone en route to the $29.00 mark and eventually aim towards retesting the multi-month low, around the $28.25 region.

On the flip side, bulls might now wait for a sustained strength beyond the daily swing high, around the $31.30 region, which nears the 50% Fibo. level, before placing fresh bets. The subsequent move-up should allow the XAG/USD to reclaim the $32.00 mark and climb further towards the 61.8% Fibo. level, around the $32.15-$32.20 zone. The latter should act as a key pivotal point, which if cleared decisively will be seen as a fresh trigger for bullish traders and lift the white metal beyond the $32.65 intermediate barrier, towards the $33.00 round figure.

Silver 4-hour chart