USD/CAD Price Forecast: Holds above 1.4300 ahead of US PCE Inflation, Canadian GDP data

• USD/CAD stays above 1.4300 ahead of the US PCE Inflation data for February and the Canadian monthly GDP data for January.
• US President Trump is set to announce reciprocal tariffs on April 2.
• On Wednesday, Trump imposed a 25% blanket tariff on all cars imported into the US.

The USD/CAD pair rises to near 1.4330 during European trading hours on Friday. The Loonie pair trades higher ahead of the United States (US) Personal Consumption Expenditure Price Index (PCE) data for February and Canadian monthly Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data for January, which will be published at 12:30 GMT.

The US PCE inflation data will influence market expectations for the Federal Reserve (Fed) monetary policy outlook. Economists expect the US core PCE inflation, which is the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, to have grown at a faster pace of 2.7% year-on-year, compared to the 2.6% increase seen in January.

Meanwhile, the Canadian economy is expected to have expanded at a faster pace of 0.3% against 0.2% growth seen in December.

The impact of the US and Canadian data is expected to be limited on the pair as its fate is tied to impending tariffs to be announced by US President Donald Trump on April 2. Trump is poised to unveil his reciprocal tariff plan on Wednesday, which is expected to force market experts to revise their global economic forecasts.

On Wednesday, Trump imposed 25% tariffs on foreign cars, which has impacted the Canadian Dollar (CAD), being one of the leading auto exporters to the US.

USD/CAD holds above the 100-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which is around 1.4233, suggesting that the overall trend is bullish.

The 14-period Relative Strength Index (RSI) oscillates in the 40.00-60.00 range, indicating a sideways trend.

Going forward, an upside move would emerge above the March 10 high of 1.4470, which will open the door toward the psychological resistance of 1.4500 and the January 30 high of 1.4595.

On the contrary, a breakdown below the February 14 low of 1.4151 by the pair would expose it to the December 9 low of 1.4094, followed by the December 6 low of 1.4020.

USD/CAD daily chart