Select Language

Pound Sterling gains as UK Retail Sales surprisingly grew in February

Breaking news

Pound Sterling gains as UK Retail Sales surprisingly grew in February

  • X
  • facebook
  • LINE
  • RSS

  • X
  • facebook
  • LINE
  • RSS
New update 2025.03.28 17:07
Pound Sterling gains as UK Retail Sales surprisingly grew in February

update 2025.03.28 17:07

  • The Pound Sterling rises against its peers on Friday after surprisingly upbeat UK Retail Sales data for February.
  • The UK economy expanded at a robust pace of 1.5% in the last quarter of 2024.
  • Investors brace for US PCE inflation and impending tariffs from US President Trump.

The Pound Sterling (GBP) advances against its major peers on Friday, except the Japanese Yen (JPY), after the release of the United Kingdom (UK) Retail Sales data for February and revised Q4 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) figures. The Office for National Statistics (ONS) reported that Retail Sales, a key measure of consumer spending, surprisingly rose by 1% month-on-month. Economists expected the data to have declined by 0.3%. In January, retail sales grew at a robust pace of 1.4%, revised lower from 1.7%.

In the 12 months to February, the consumer spending measure grew strongly by 2.2% compared to estimates of 0.5% and the former release of 0.6%, revised lower from 1%. Upbeat Retail Sales data is expected to support Bank of England (BoE) officials, who guided a "gradual and cautious" monetary easing outlook in last week's policy meeting after leaving interest rates unchanged at 4.5%.

Meanwhile, revised GDP figures show that the economy expanded at a faster pace of 1.5% against the preliminary estimate of 1.4%.

This week, UK Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves delivered a budget update in which she announced a significant cut in welfare benefits and halved its GDP forecasts for the current year to 1%. Reeves added that amendments in welfare spending would save £4.8 billion, and she would rebuild a nearly £10 billion fiscal buffer.

Daily digest market movers: Pound Sterling ticks higher against US Dollar

  • The Pound Sterling edges higher to near 1.2960 against the US Dollar (USD) in Friday's European session. The GBP/USD pair gains slightly ahead of the United States (US) Personal Consumption Expenditures Price (PCE) Index for February, which will be published at 12:30 GMT.
  • The US core PCE inflation, which is the Federal Reserve's (Fed) preferred inflation gauge, is estimated to have grown at a faster pace of 2.7% year-over-year, compared to the 2.6% increase seen in January. Month-on-month core PCE inflation is expected to have grown steadily by 0.3%. In this month's policy meeting, the Fed revised their forecast for the core PCE Index for this year to 2.8%, up from the 2.5% projected in the December meeting.
  • Historically, the underlying inflation significantly influences market expectations for the Fed's monetary policy outlook. This time, the impact is expected to be limited as investors brace for impending reciprocal tariffs by US President Donald Trump, which are expected to force market experts to revise their consumer inflation expectations. However, Fed officials and financial market participants had already anticipated that tariffs would be inflationary for the economy in the near term. Still, they need clarity on tariff rates to know the degree of acceleration in price pressures.
  • US President Trump is set to announce reciprocal tariffs on April 2, the same day his recently announced 25% levy on autos will be implemented. Meanwhile, UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer seeks to secure a deal with the US before Trump unveils reciprocal tariffs. "Trade wars are no good for anyone," Chancellor Rachel Reeves said in an interview with Bloomberg Television on Thursday and added that they are working intensely these next few days to try and secure "a good deal for Britain". 
  • Market participants also expect that the impact of Trump's tariffs will be very limited on the UK. In late February, Trump commented that he is not sure about imposing tariffs on the UK and sounded confident that a deal could be made as Keir Starmer was "very nice".

Technical Analysis: Pound Sterling aims to hold 1.2930

On Friday, the Pound Sterling strives to hold the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, plotted from late-September high to mid-January low, near 1.2930 against the US Dollar. The 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) continues to provide support to the pair around 1.2885.

The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) cools down to near 60.00 after turning overbought above 70.00. Should a fresh bullish momentum come into action if the RSI resumes the upside journey after holding above the 60.00 level

Looking down, the 50% Fibonacci retracement at 1.2770 and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at 1.2615 will act as key support zones for the pair. On the upside, the October 15 high of 1.3100 will act as a key resistance zone.

Pound Sterling FAQs

The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as 'Cable', which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the 'Dragon' as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE).

The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of "price stability" - a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects.

Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall.

Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.

 


Date

Created

 : 2025.03.28

Update

Last updated

 : 2025.03.28

Related articles


Show more

FXStreet

Financial media

arrow
FXStreet

FXStreet is a forex information website, delivering market analysis and news articles 24/7.
It features a number of articles contributed by well-known analysts, in addition to the ones by its editorial team.
Founded in 2000 by Francesc Riverola, a Spanish economist, it has grown to become a world-renowned information website.

Was this article helpful?

We hope you find this article useful. Any comments or suggestions will be greatly appreciated.  
We are also looking for writers with extensive experience in forex and crypto to join us.

please contact us at [email protected].

Thank you for your feedback.
Thank you for your feedback.

Most viewed

Gold price climbs beyond $3,100, sets fresh record high amid trade woes

Gold price (XAU/USD) attracts strong follow-through buying for the third consecutive day and climbs beyond the $3,100 mark, hitting a fresh all-time peak during the Asian session on Monday.
New
update2025.03.31 13:52

NZD/USD weakens to near 0.5700 as Trump's tariffs loom

The NZD/USD pair edges lower to around 0.5705 during the Asian trading hours on Monday.
New
update2025.03.31 13:41

USD/CAD consolidates in a range above 1.4300 mark amid mixed cues

The USD/CAD pair struggles to capitalize on its modest bounce from the monthly low touched last Wednesday and kicks off the new week on a subdued note amid mixed cues.
New
update2025.03.31 12:11

Japanese Yen advances to one-week high against USD amid the risk-off mood

The Japanese Yen (JPY) strengthens against its American counterpart for the second consecutive day on Monday and hits a one-week high during the Asian session on Monday.
New
update2025.03.31 11:44

GBP/USD attracts some buyers above 1.2950 on weaker US Dollar

The GBP/USD pair gathers strength to near 1.2965 during the Asian trading hours on Monday.
New
update2025.03.31 11:36

Gold price conquers $3,100 for the first time ever on tariff war fears

The record rally in Gold price remains unabated as buyers conquer the $3,100 threshold for the time on record. Heightening fears of a potential global trade war and stagflation in the United States (US) intensify safe-haven demand for the traditional store of value, Gold.
New
update2025.03.31 11:27

Japan's Kato: Have agreed with the US that excessive moves on forex are undesirable

Japanese Finance Minister Katsunobu Kato said on Monday, they "have agreed with the US that excessive moves on forex are undesirable."
New
update2025.03.31 10:56

Australian Dollar climbs after upbeat Chinese PMI data

The Australian Dollar (AUD) recovers some lost ground on Monday, bolstered by the upbeat Chinese economic data.
New
update2025.03.31 10:40

China's March NBS Manufacturing PMI rises to 50.5, Non-Manufacturing PMI jumps to 50.8

China's Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) edged higher to 50.5 in March from 50.2 in February, the official data released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) showed on Monday.
New
update2025.03.31 10:33

PBOC sets USD/CNY reference rate at 7.1782 vs. 7.1752 previous

On Monday, the People's Bank of China (PBOC) set the USD/CNY central rate for the trading session ahead at 7.1782 as compared to Friday's fix of 7.1752 and 7.2593 Reuters estimate.
New
update2025.03.31 10:15

Disclaimer:arw

All information and content provided on this website is provided for informational purposes only and is not intended to solicit any investment. Although all efforts are made in order to ensure that the information is correct, no guarantee is provided for the accuracy of any content on this website. Any decision made shall be the responsibility of the investor and Myforex does not take any responsibility whatsoever regarding the use of any information provided herein.

The content provided on this website belongs to Myforex and, where stated, the relevant licensors. All rights are reserved by Myforex and the relevant licensors, and no content of this website, whether in full or in part, shall be copied or displayed elsewhere without the explicit written permission of the relevant copyright holder. If you wish to use any part of the content provided on this website, please ensure that you contact Myforex.

  • Facebook
  • Twitter
  • LINE

Myforex uses cookies to improve the convenience and functionality of this website. This website may include cookies not only by us but also by third parties (advertisers, log analysts, etc.) for the purpose of tracking the activities of users. Cookie policy

I agree
share
Share
Cancel