NZD/USD extends gains to near 0.5750 amid improved risk sentiment, China stimulus hopes

• NZD/USD appreciates as sentiment improves following S&P Global Ratings' projection that New Zealand will be less affected by US tariffs.
• Bullish momentum persists in New Zealand equities, driven by signs of domestic recovery after country exited recession in Q4 2024.
• Federal Reserve Governor Adriana Kugler reaffirmed that the Fed's interest rate policy remains restrictive and appropriately positioned.

NZD/USD continues its upward momentum for the second consecutive day, trading around 0.5740 during Asian hours on Wednesday. The pair strengthens as the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) gains traction, supported by improved trader sentiment after S&P Global Ratings projected that New Zealand and several regional economies would be less affected by US tariffs.

Additionally, optimism surrounding potential US tariff exemptions provided some relief to the export-driven NZD. However, uncertainty remains as US President Trump reportedly considers three escalating tariff levels, though some sources suggest this tiered approach is not officially under discussion.

Further bolstering NZD, bullish momentum in New Zealand equities continues following signs of domestic recovery after the country exited the recession in Q4 2024. Government data released last week showed GDP grew 0.7% in the December quarter, surpassing analysts' forecasts of 0.4% and the central bank's 0.3% projection.

The NZD could also find support from anticipated Chinese stimulus measures aimed at boosting consumption. China's Communist Party and State Council have proposed initiatives to "vigorously boost consumption" by increasing wages and easing financial burdens, an effort that could benefit New Zealand exports given China's role as a key trade partner.

However, the Kiwi Dollar may struggle due to expectations of further monetary easing from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ). In its February meeting, the central bank signaled two 25-basis-point (bps) rate cuts in April and May, with a potential third later in the year.

Despite NZD strength, the upside for NZD/USD could be limited as the US Dollar (USD) finds support from hawkish remarks by Federal Reserve Governor Adriana Kugler. On Tuesday, Kugler emphasized that the Fed's interest rate policy remains restrictive and well-positioned. Kugler also noted that progress toward the 2% inflation target has slowed since last summer and described the recent rise in goods inflation as "unhelpful."