Created
: 2025.03.21
2025.03.21 13:12
Gold price (XAU/USD) meets with a fresh supply during the Asian session on Friday and slides to the $3,030 area in the last hour, back closer to the overnight swing low. The US Dollar (USD) trades with a positive bias for the third successive day and prompts bulls to lighten their bets around the commodity heading into the weekend. That said, a combination of factors might continue to offer some support to the bullion, which remains on track to register gains for the third straight week.
Investors remain concerned about US President Donald Trump's aggressive policies and their impact on the global economy. Apart from this, persistent geopolitical risks stemming from conflicts in the Middle East and the protracted Russia-Ukraine war should continue to act as a tailwind for the safe-haven Gold price. Furthermore, bets that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will resume its rate-cutting cycle should cap the USD gains and contribute to limiting losses for the non-yielding yellow metal.
From a technical perspective, the corrective slide witnessed over the past two days could be attributed to some profit-taking amid slightly overbought conditions on the daily chart. That said, the lack of any follow-through selling warrants some caution for bearish traders and before confirming that the Gold price has topped out in the near term. Hence, any further decline below the $3,023-3,022 area might still be seen as a buying opportunity and remain limited near the $3,000 psychological mark.
The latter should act as a key pivotal point for short-term traders, which if broken decisively might prompt some technical selling and drag the Gold price to the $2,980-2,978 intermediate support en route to the $2,956 area. The downward trajectory could extend further towards the $2,930 support before the XAU/USD drops to the $2,900 mark and aims towards testing last week's swing low, around the $2.880 region.
On the flip side, the $3,057-3,058 zone, or the all-time peak touched on Thursday, now seems to act as an immediate hurdle. A sustained strength beyond will be seen as a fresh trigger for bullish traders and pave the way for an extension of the recent well-established uptrend witnessed over the past three months or so.
Gold has played a key role in human's history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn't rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country's solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
Created
: 2025.03.21
Last updated
: 2025.03.21
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