GBP/USD set to swoon on holiday-shortened week

• GBP/USD held on the low side of 1.2550 on Monday.
• Money markets are constricting ahead of the midweek Christmas holiday.
• UK GDP figures slightly missed the mark to wrap up the GBP's data docket early.

GBP/USD waffled near the 1.2550 level on Monday, kicking off the holiday trading week with a third of a percent decline as market sentiment coils. Market volumes are set to drain out of global exchanges as investors broadly hang up their hats for the Christmas holiday, and global markets will be shuttered on Wednesday.

UK Gross Domestic Product (GDP) missed to the downside early Monday, with quarterly UK GDP easing to a flat 0.0% in the third quarter compared to the expected hold near 0.1%. Annualized UK GDP also missed forecasts, coming in at 0.9% YoY. Investors had expected the yearly figure to print in-line with the previous period's figure of 1.0%.

US Durable Goods Order also missed the mark on Monday, putting a capstone on a downturn in broad-market sentiment. US Durable Goods Orders fell in November, printing at -1.1% compared to the expected print of -0.4%, and entirely walking back the previous month's revised 0.8% figure. Most of the losses in Durable Goods Orders were from automotive purchases, with core Durable Goods Orders (excluding automotive) printing at -0.1%, still down from the forecast 0.3% but a sight better than the headline figure.

Overall market reaction to data has been limited to start the week, and will only get worse as market liquidity dries up. Meaningful data is functionally done for the week on both sides of the Atlantic, though US Initial Jobless Claims for the week ended December 20 are due on Thursday. Whether or not there will even be traders at their desks to see the data cross the wires is another matter entirely.

GBP/USD price forecast

GBP/USD continues to trade on the wrong side of the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) near 1.2800, with price action lagging into the 1.2500 handle. A bullish turnaround fizzled in late November, and Cable prices are set to continue languishing.

The pair remains down nearly 7% from September's peaks near 1.3400. Any fresh attempts at generating bullish momentum will need to get over the last swing high, with technical resistance clustered near the 50-day EMA near 1.2765.

GBP/USD daily chart