Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD drops to near $29.50, facing pressure from Fed's moderate hawkish stance

• Silver price falls to near $29.50 amid firm US Treasury yields.
• US bond yields trade near more than a six-month high as the Fed guided fewer rate cuts in 2025.
• Silver price remains broadly weak amid a breakdown of the upward-sloping trendline.

Silver price (XAG/USD) falls to near $29.30 in Tuesday's European session, though it remains inside Monday's trading range amid thin trading volume due to holidays on Wednesday and Thursday on account of Christmas Eve and Thanksgiving Day. The white metal is broadly under pressure as the Federal Reserve (Fed) has guided a moderate hawkish stance on the monetary policy outlook.

The Fed has shifted from "dovish" to "cautionary" on interest rates as progress in the disinflation trend has stalled in the last three months, and labor market conditions are not as bad as they appeared in the September meeting. Additionally, policymakers see incoming immigration, tariff, and tax policies from US President-elect Donald Trump as inflationary for the economy.

In the latest dot plot, the Fed guided two interest rate cuts for 2025, which analysts at UBS see coming in June and September.

Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback's value against six major currencies, oscillates in a tight range above 108.00. 10-year US Treasury yields wobble near a more-than-six-month high of around 4.6%. Firm yields on interest-bearing assets weigh on non-yielding assets, such as Silver, as they result in higher opportunity costs for them.

Silver technical analysis

Silver price stays below the upward-sloping trendline, plotted from the February 29 low of $22.30 on a daily timeframe, after a breakdown near $30.00. The white metal wobbles around the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), suggesting that the longer-term outlook is uncertain.

The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) rebounds to near 40.00. A fresh bearish momentum would trigger if it fails to break above that level.

Looking down, the September low of $27.75 would act as key support for the Silver price. On the upside, the 50-day EMA around $30.90 would be the barrier.

Silver daily chart