Created
: 2024.12.20
2024.12.20 10:57
The Australian Dollar (AUD) retraces its recent gains from the previous session against the US Dollar (USD) following the People's Bank of China's (PBoC) monetary policy decision on Friday. China's central bank decided to keep its one- and five-year Loan Prime Rates (LPRs) unchanged at 3.10% and 3.60%, respectively, in the fourth quarterly meeting.
Australia's Private Sector Credit grew by 0.5% month-over-month in November, aligning with expectations. This followed a 0.6% increase in October, which marked the fastest monthly growth in four months. On an annual basis, Private Sector Credit rose by 6.2% in November, the highest growth rate since May 2023, up slightly from 6.1% in October.
The Aussie Dollar faces pressure as traders increasingly anticipate that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) may begin cutting its 4.35% cash rate as early as February, amid mounting signs of an economic slowdown. Attention now shifts to the release of the RBA's latest meeting minutes due next week.
The US Dollar strengthened after the US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) Annualized reported a 3.1% growth rate in the third quarter, surpassing both market expectations and the previous reading of 2.8%. Additionally, Initial Jobless Claims dropped to 220,000 for the week ending December 13, down from 242,000 in the prior week and below the market forecast of 230,000.
AUD/USD trades near 0.6230 on Friday, with daily chart analysis pointing to a persistent bearish bias as the pair continues to decline within a descending channel pattern. However, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains below the 30 mark, signaling oversold conditions and suggesting the potential for an upward correction in the near term.
On the downside, the AUD/USD pair may test the descending channel's lower boundary near the 0.6130 level, highlighting a key support area in the current bearish trend.
The AUD/USD pair will likely encounter primary resistance near the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 0.6310, followed by the 14-day EMA at 0.6346. A further hurdle lies at the descending channel's upper boundary around 0.6390. A decisive breakout above this channel could propel the pair toward the eight-week high of 0.6687.
The table below shows the percentage change of Australian Dollar (AUD) against listed major currencies today. Australian Dollar was the weakest against the Japanese Yen.
USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
USD | 0.01% | 0.08% | -0.06% | 0.17% | 0.17% | 0.08% | -0.01% | |
EUR | -0.01% | 0.06% | -0.05% | 0.17% | 0.15% | 0.07% | -0.02% | |
GBP | -0.08% | -0.06% | -0.12% | 0.09% | 0.07% | -0.00% | -0.07% | |
JPY | 0.06% | 0.05% | 0.12% | 0.23% | 0.21% | 0.11% | 0.06% | |
CAD | -0.17% | -0.17% | -0.09% | -0.23% | -0.01% | -0.09% | -0.16% | |
AUD | -0.17% | -0.15% | -0.07% | -0.21% | 0.00% | -0.10% | -0.16% | |
NZD | -0.08% | -0.07% | 0.00% | -0.11% | 0.09% | 0.10% | -0.07% | |
CHF | 0.00% | 0.02% | 0.07% | -0.06% | 0.16% | 0.16% | 0.07% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Australian Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent AUD (base)/USD (quote).
The People's Bank of China's (PBoC) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) holds scheduled meetings on a quarterly basis. However, China's benchmark interest rate - the loan prime rate (LPR), a pricing reference for bank lending - is fixed every month. If the PBoC forecasts high inflation (hawkish) it raises interest rates, which is bullish for the Renminbi (CNY). Likewise, if the PBoC sees inflation in the Chinese economy falling (dovish) and cuts or keeps interest rates unchanged, it is bearish for CNY. Still, China's currency doesn't have a floating exchange rate determined by markets and its value against the US Dollar is fixed mainly by the PBoC on a daily basis.
Read more.Last release: Fri Dec 20, 2024 01:15
Frequency: Irregular
Actual: 3.1%
Consensus: 3.1%
Previous: 3.1%
Source: The People's Bank of China
Created
: 2024.12.20
Last updated
: 2024.12.20
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