Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD finds cushion near $29, outlook remains uncertain

• Silver price finds an interim cushion near $29.25 but its outlook remains vulnerable.
• Higher bond yields due to the Fed's hawkish guidance have weighed on the Silver price.
• The Fed sees only two interest rate cuts in 2025.

Silver price (XAG/USD) finds temporary support near $29.25 on Thursday after plunging almost 4% on Wednesday. The outlook of the white metal remains bearish as the Federal Reserve (Fed) has signaled fewer interest rate cuts for 2025 after cutting them by 25-basis points (bps) to 4.25%-4.50%.

The Fed's hawkish remarks for the next year have resulted in a rally in the US Dollar (USD) and Treasury yields. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the greenback's value against six major currencies, dropped to near 107.90 in Thursday's European session after refreshing a two-year high of around 108.30.

10-year US Treasury yields advance above 4.50%. Higher yields on interest-bearing assets increase the opportunity cost of holding an investment in non-yielding assets, such as Silver.

The Fed's dot plot showed that policymakers see the Federal Funds rate heading to 3.9% by 2025, suggesting two interest rate cuts next year. In the September meeting, officials had forecasted four interest rate cuts collectively.

The Fed guided a slower policy-easing cycle as the United States (US) inflationary pressures appear to have stalled in the past few months. Meanwhile, Fed Chair Jerome Powell acknowledged that strong growth in the second half of the year is a major reason to move cautiously on interest rates.

Silver technical analysis

Silver price slides to near the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which trades around $29.40. The white metal weakened after breaking below the November low of $29.65. The asset has also tested the upward-sloping trendline around $29.50, which is plotted from the February 29 low of $22.30

The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) dropped inside the bearish 20.00-40.00 range, indicating a downward trend ahead.

Looking down, the September low of $27.75 would as key support for the Silver price. On the upside, the 50-day EMA around $31.00 would be the barrier.

Silver daily chart