Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD falls below $31.00 despite escalated geopolitical tension

• Silver price may regain its ground due to safe-haven flows amid the rising Russia-Ukraine war.
• The dollar-denominated Silver may gain demand as the US Dollar depreciates due to market optimism.
• The non-interest-bearing Silver could face challenges due to increased odds of the Fed slowing the pace of rate cuts.

Silver price (XAG/USD) retraces its recent gains, trading around $30.80 per troy ounce during the Asian session on Monday. This decline may be linked to a technical pullback, similar to the weakness seen in precious metal Gold. However, Silver, as a safe-haven asset, could regain its momentum due to the escalating Russia-Ukraine conflict.

On Friday, President Vladimir Putin confirmed that Russia conducted a hypersonic intermediate-range missile test in an attack on the Ukrainian city of Dnipro. The Kremlin stated that the strike was a retaliatory measure in response to Ukraine's first assault on Russian territory using US and British-supplied weapons.

Silver prices may receive additional support from a weaker US Dollar following the announcement by US President-elect Donald Trump of his nomination of hedge fund manager Scott Bessent as the new US Treasury Secretary. Bessent, a seasoned Wall Street figure and fiscal conservative, is expected to adopt a more cautious stance on tariffs, alleviating concerns about the implementation of aggressive trade policies.

The non-interest-bearing Silver might have faced downward pressure due to the potential for a higher opportunity cost over a prolonged period. This could be attributed to the strong preliminary S&P Global US Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) data released on Friday, which has fueled expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) may slow the pace of rate cuts.

Futures traders are now assigning a 50.9% probability to the Federal Reserve cutting rates by a quarter point, down from approximately 61.9% a week earlier, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.