Created
: 2024.10.17
2024.10.17 12:52
The Japanese Yen (JPY) ticks higher against its American counterpart during the Asian session on Thursday and reverses a part of the overnight losses back closer to the lowest level since early August. Any meaningful JPY appreciation, however, still seems elusive amid the uncertainty over the Bank of Japan's (BoJ) rate-hike path. A fall in Japan's exports for the first time in 10 months raised concerns about weakness in global demand. This comes on top of a surprise opposition to further rate hikes from Japan's Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba and may complicate the BoJ's plans to exit years of ultra-easy monetary policy.
Apart from this, the prevalent risk-on environment might contribute to capping the upside for the safe-haven JPY. Furthermore, expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will proceed with modest interest rate cuts over the next year continue to act as a tailwind for the US Treasury bond yields and keep the US Dollar (USD) well supported near its highest level in more than two months. This could further undermine the low-yielding JPY and support prospects for the emergence of some dip-buying around the USD/JPY pair. Traders now look forward to the US macro releases for short-term impetus later this Thursday.
From a technical perspective, the USD/JPY pair has been oscillating in a familiar range since the beginning of this week. Against the backdrop of the recent rise from a 14-month low touched in September, this might still be categorized as a bullish consolidation phase. Moreover, oscillators on the daily chart are holding in positive territory and are still away from being in the overbought zone, supporting prospects for an eventual breakout to the upside. That said, it will still be prudent to wait for a sustained strength above the 150.00 psychological mark before placing fresh bullish bets. Spot prices might then accelerate the move up towards the August monthly swing high, around the 150.85-150.90 region. Some follow-through buying beyond the 151.00 round figure will be seen as a fresh trigger for bullish traders and pave the way for further near-term appreciation.
On the flip side, the 149.00 mark, representing the lower boundary of the short-term trading range, might continue to protect the immediate downside. A convincing break below has the potential to drag the USD/JPY pair to the next relevant support near the 148.55 region en route to the 148.00 round figure and last week's swing low, around the 147.35-147.30 area. The latter is followed by the 147.00 mark, which if broken decisively will suggest that the recent move-up witnessed over the past month or so has run its course and prompt aggressive technical selling.
The Japanese Yen (JPY) is one of the world's most traded currencies. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Japanese economy, but more specifically by the Bank of Japan's policy, the differential between Japanese and US bond yields, or risk sentiment among traders, among other factors.
One of the Bank of Japan's mandates is currency control, so its moves are key for the Yen. The BoJ has directly intervened in currency markets sometimes, generally to lower the value of the Yen, although it refrains from doing it often due to political concerns of its main trading partners. The BoJ ultra-loose monetary policy between 2013 and 2024 caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks. More recently, the gradually unwinding of this ultra-loose policy has given some support to the Yen.
Over the last decade, the BoJ's stance of sticking to ultra-loose monetary policy has led to a widening policy divergence with other central banks, particularly with the US Federal Reserve. This supported a widening of the differential between the 10-year US and Japanese bonds, which favored the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen. The BoJ decision in 2024 to gradually abandon the ultra-loose policy, coupled with interest-rate cuts in other major central banks, is narrowing this differential.
The Japanese Yen is often seen as a safe-haven investment. This means that in times of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money in the Japanese currency due to its supposed reliability and stability. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen the Yen's value against other currencies seen as more risky to invest in.
Created
: 2024.10.17
Last updated
: 2024.10.17
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