Select Language

USD/CAD remains below 1.3600 due to improved risk sentiment

Breaking news

USD/CAD remains below 1.3600 due to improved risk sentiment

  • X
  • facebook
  • LINE
  • RSS

  • X
  • facebook
  • LINE
  • RSS
New update 2024.09.16 17:01
USD/CAD remains below 1.3600 due to improved risk sentiment

update 2024.09.16 17:01

  • USD/CAD depreciates due to risk-on mood amid rising odds of a bumper 50 basis points rate cut by the Fed.
  • CME FedWatch Tool suggests the likelihood of a 50 basis points Fed rate cut increasing to 59.0%.
  • Lower Oil prices might have put downward pressure on the commodity-linked Canadian Dollar.

USD/CAD edges lower to near 1.3580 during the early European hours on Monday as the US Dollar (USD) received downward pressure amid the rising likelihood of the US Federal Reserve opting for an aggressive 50 basis points rate cut at its upcoming monetary policy meeting scheduled for Wednesday.

According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets anticipate 41.0% odds of a 25 basis point (bps) rate cut by the Fed at its September meeting. The likelihood of a 50 bps rate cut has increased to 59.0%, up from 50.0% a day ago.

Additionally, lower US Treasury yields contribute to the downward pressure for the Greenback. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the US Dollar against its six major peers, trades around 100.70 with 2-year and 10-year yields on US Treasury bonds standing at 3.55% and 3.64%, respectively, at the time of writing.

On the CAD front, lower crude Oil prices might have put downward pressure on the Loonie Dollar and limit the downside of the USD/CAD pair. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil price remains subdued around $68.40 per barrel at the time of writing. Concerns over slowing fuel demand in the world's largest Oil importer resurfaced following a series of disappointing Chinese economic data over the weekend, putting pressure on Oil prices.

Additionally, the Canadian Dollar (CAD) may weaken due to growing expectations of further interest rate cuts by the Bank of Canada (BoC). Traders will likely to monitor Canada's Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for August, scheduled for release on Tuesday. This inflation report could offer fresh insights into the Bank of Canada's outlook ahead of its October policy decision.

Canadian Dollar FAQs

The key factors driving the Canadian Dollar (CAD) are the level of interest rates set by the Bank of Canada (BoC), the price of Oil, Canada's largest export, the health of its economy, inflation and the Trade Balance, which is the difference between the value of Canada's exports versus its imports. Other factors include market sentiment - whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) - with risk-on being CAD-positive. As its largest trading partner, the health of the US economy is also a key factor influencing the Canadian Dollar.

The Bank of Canada (BoC) has a significant influence on the Canadian Dollar by setting the level of interest rates that banks can lend to one another. This influences the level of interest rates for everyone. The main goal of the BoC is to maintain inflation at 1-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively higher interest rates tend to be positive for the CAD. The Bank of Canada can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former CAD-negative and the latter CAD-positive.

The price of Oil is a key factor impacting the value of the Canadian Dollar. Petroleum is Canada's biggest export, so Oil price tends to have an immediate impact on the CAD value. Generally, if Oil price rises CAD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Oil falls. Higher Oil prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance, which is also supportive of the CAD.

While inflation had always traditionally been thought of as a negative factor for a currency since it lowers the value of money, the opposite has actually been the case in modern times with the relaxation of cross-border capital controls. Higher inflation tends to lead central banks to put up interest rates which attracts more capital inflows from global investors seeking a lucrative place to keep their money. This increases demand for the local currency, which in Canada's case is the Canadian Dollar.

Macroeconomic data releases gauge the health of the economy and can have an impact on the Canadian Dollar. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the CAD. A strong economy is good for the Canadian Dollar. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Canada to put up interest rates, leading to a stronger currency. If economic data is weak, however, the CAD is likely to fall.


Date

Created

 : 2024.09.16

Update

Last updated

 : 2024.09.16

Related articles


Show more

FXStreet

Financial media

arrow
FXStreet

FXStreet is a forex information website, delivering market analysis and news articles 24/7.
It features a number of articles contributed by well-known analysts, in addition to the ones by its editorial team.
Founded in 2000 by Francesc Riverola, a Spanish economist, it has grown to become a world-renowned information website.

Was this article helpful?

We hope you find this article useful. Any comments or suggestions will be greatly appreciated.  
We are also looking for writers with extensive experience in forex and crypto to join us.

please contact us at [email protected].

Thank you for your feedback.
Thank you for your feedback.

Most viewed

USD/CAD trades with mild gains above 1.3600, Fed cuts rates for first time in four years

The USD/CAD pair posts modest gains around 1.3605 during the early Asian session on Thursday.
New
update2024.09.19 08:04

New Zealand GDP contracts by 0.2% but bucks forecasts

New Zealand's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth in the second quarter contracted by 0.2% QoQ, falling back from the previous quarter's revised 0.1% (from 0.2%), but still held above the median market forecast of -0.4%.
New
update2024.09.19 07:58

GBP/USD holds steady as BoE rate call looms ahead

GBP/USD hit a fresh 30-month high on Wednesday, pushed within inches of the 1.3300 handle after the US Federal Reserve (Fed) trimmed interest rates by a jumbo 50 bps and chalking in the US central bank's first rate cut in over four years.
New
update2024.09.19 07:42

NZD/JPY Price Analysis: Pair continue with mild upwards movements, reversal signs gaining relevance

In Wednesday's session, the NZD/JPY pair rose by to 88.25. Considering the fresh gains and the latest technical outlook, the possibility of a reversal of last week's losses is growing.
New
update2024.09.19 06:35

Australian Unemployment Rate expected to hold steady at 4.2% in August

The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) will release the monthly employment report at 1:30 GMT on Thursday.
New
update2024.09.19 06:30

USD/CHF rebounds slightly, yet prints losses following Fed's cut

The USD/CHF recovered after whipsawing after the Federal Reserve lowered borrowing costs by 50 basis points (bps), though it reaffirmed its data-dependent stance, according to Chairman Jerome Powell.
New
update2024.09.19 06:02

Australian Dollar clears gains on USD recovery

The AUD/USD reached a high of 0.6800 before falling back toward the 0.6760 level in the wake of the Federal Reserve's (Fed) decision to cut interest rates by 50 basis points to 5%.
New
update2024.09.19 05:42

What just happened: Why did the Federal Reserve just cut interest rates?

The US Federal Reserve (Fed), easily the largest and most powerful central bank in the world, just decreased its Federal Funds Interest Rate by 50 basis points (bps) to a reference range of 5.0-5.25% percent.
New
update2024.09.19 05:37

Forex Today: Investors' attention now shifts to the US economic health

The Greenback regained composure and bounced off multi-month lows as traders continued to assess the Fed's 50-bps interest rate cut in quite a volatile session on Wednesday.
New
update2024.09.19 04:55

Gold price slips following 50 bps Fed cut as Powell speaks

Gold prices fluctuated within the $2,565-$2,600 range during the North American session after the Federal Reserve (Fed) cut rates by 50 bps.
New
update2024.09.19 04:31

Disclaimer:arw

All information and content provided on this website is provided for informational purposes only and is not intended to solicit any investment. Although all efforts are made in order to ensure that the information is correct, no guarantee is provided for the accuracy of any content on this website. Any decision made shall be the responsibility of the investor and Myforex does not take any responsibility whatsoever regarding the use of any information provided herein.

The content provided on this website belongs to Myforex and, where stated, the relevant licensors. All rights are reserved by Myforex and the relevant licensors, and no content of this website, whether in full or in part, shall be copied or displayed elsewhere without the explicit written permission of the relevant copyright holder. If you wish to use any part of the content provided on this website, please ensure that you contact Myforex.

  • Facebook
  • Twitter
  • LINE

Myforex uses cookies to improve the convenience and functionality of this website. This website may include cookies not only by us but also by third parties (advertisers, log analysts, etc.) for the purpose of tracking the activities of users. Cookie policy

I agree
share
Share
Cancel