Created
: 2024.04.24
2024.04.24 10:56
The Japanese Yen (JPY) continues with its struggle to register any meaningful recovery and languishes near a multi-decade low against its American counterpart during the Asian session on Wednesday. Traders now seem reluctant and opt to wait for the crucial Bank of Japan (BoJ) policy decision on Friday. Apart from this, investors this week will confront the release of the Advance Q1 GDP report and the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index from the US on Thursday and Friday, respectively. The combination of key central bank event risk and important US macro data will play a key role in determining the next leg of a directional move for the USD/JPY pair.
In the meantime, expectations that the gap in interest rates between the US and Japan will stay wide, along with a generally positive risk tone, continue to undermine the safe-haven JPY. However, speculations that Japanese authorities will intervene to prop up the domestic currency hold back the JPY bears from placing aggressive bets. Furthermore, the US Dollar (USD) hangs near its lowest level in over a week touched in the aftermath of disappointing US PMIs on Tuesday and turns out to be another factor that contributes to capping the USD/JPY pair. That said, hawkish Federal Reserve (Fed) expectations should act as a tailwind for the buck and limit the downside for the currency pair.
From a technical perspective, the range-bound price action witnessed over the past week or so could be categorized as a bullish consolidation phase against the backdrop of the recent blowout rally from the March swing low. However, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the daily chart is flashing overbought conditions and warrants some caution.
This, in turn, suggests that the USD/JPY pair is more likely to extend its consolidative price move or witness a modest pullback before the next leg up. That said, any meaningful corrective slide is likely to find decent support near the 154.55-154.45 region ahead of the 154.00 mark. The latter should act as a key pivotal point, which if broken could drag spot prices back towards last Friday's low, around the 153.60-153.55 area.
On the flip side, the multi-decade high, just ahead of the 155 psychological mark, might continue to offer some resistance to the USD/JPY pair. A sustained strength beyond the latter will be seen as a fresh trigger for bullish traders and set the stage for an extension of a nearly two-month-old upward trajectory.
The Japanese Yen (JPY) is one of the world's most traded currencies. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Japanese economy, but more specifically by the Bank of Japan's policy, the differential between Japanese and US bond yields, or risk sentiment among traders, among other factors.
One of the Bank of Japan's mandates is currency control, so its moves are key for the Yen. The BoJ has directly intervened in currency markets sometimes, generally to lower the value of the Yen, although it refrains from doing it often due to political concerns of its main trading partners. The current BoJ ultra-loose monetary policy, based on massive stimulus to the economy, has caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers. This process has exacerbated more recently due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks, which have opted to increase interest rates sharply to fight decades-high levels of inflation.
The BoJ's stance of sticking to ultra-loose monetary policy has led to a widening policy divergence with other central banks, particularly with the US Federal Reserve. This supports a widening of the differential between the 10-year US and Japanese bonds, which favors the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen.
The Japanese Yen is often seen as a safe-haven investment. This means that in times of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money in the Japanese currency due to its supposed reliability and stability. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen the Yen's value against other currencies seen as more risky to invest in.
Created
: 2024.04.24
Last updated
: 2024.04.24
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