Dow Jones Industrial Average toys with further downside on Wednesday

• The Dow Jones is struggling to find a foothold near 46,000.
• Equities are on the defensive ahead of after-market earnings call for key AI supplier Nvidia.
• Fed rate cut expectations evaporate as BLS cancels October NFP data citing collection issues.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) struggled to hold next to flat on Wednesday, mired in a downside trajectory near the 46,000 major price handle. The Dow Jones fell for four straight trading sessions, falling nearly 5% from a record high set near 48,420, but selling pressure in key average stocks may have run too far, too fast.

Nvidia earnings due after the closing bell

Nvidia (NVDA) has a key earnings report releasing after markets close on Wednesday, and the AI darling chipset printer has a high bar to pass. Nvidia is down over 12% through November as investors begin to question when returns are expected on trillions of dollars in capex and investment commitments in the increasingly circular AI tech segment. 

Nvidia's stock price has become a bellwether for the overall health of the LLM craze. As the premier shovel-seller in the AI gold rush, Nvidia is overwhelmingly likely to continue posting record-breaking growth metrics, but Wall Street expectations for the silicon-puncher's earnings have run into the stratosphere.

The US Bureau of Labor Statistics has pre-emptively canceled the release of October's Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report, citing a lack of data collection through the federal government shutdown. Rate markets are already recoiling, pricing down the odds of a December cut. According to the CME's FedWatch Tool, the odds of a Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate cut on December 10 have fallen to around 30%.

FOMC seemed willing to explore a December cut

The Federal Open Market Committee's (FOMC) latest Meeting Minutes showed that several Fed policymakers were open to the idea of a December rate cut, but those observations were made before Fed officials knew the October NFP data would be deleted from history.

September's NFP jobs report will be published on Thursday. However, the report is already unlikely to drive much market attention now that an October lull will leave policymakers in a data lurch until the new year.

Dow Jones daily chart