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: 2025.11.19
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EUR/USD stays silent below 1.1600 as Fed rate cut bets recede
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EUR/USD stays silent below 1.1600 as Fed rate cut bets recede
New
2025.11.19 12:23
2025.11.19 12:23
2025.11.19 12:23
- EUR/USD may further decline as the US Dollar gains amid declining Fed rate cut bets.
- The CME FedWatch Tool indicates 49% odds for a 25-basis-point Fed rate cut in December.
- The Euro attempts to steady as traders expect the ECB to adopt a cautious stance.
EUR/USD moves little after three days of losses, trading around 1.1580 during the Asian hours on Wednesday. The pair may further lose ground as the US Dollar (USD) gains amid declining US Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cut bets for December. The highly anticipated September Nonfarm Payrolls data are scheduled to be released on Thursday.
The CME FedWatch Tool suggests that financial markets are now pricing in a 49% chance that the Fed will cut its benchmark overnight borrowing rate by 25 basis points (bps) at its December meeting, down from 67% probability that markets priced a week ago.
US Initial Jobless Claims showed on Tuesday that 232,000 people filed first-time claims for state unemployment insurance in the week ended October 18. Continuing Claims came in at 1.957 million, up slightly from 1.926 million in the prior week.
Meanwhile, an Automatic Data Processing (ADP) report showed that employers cut 2,500 jobs a week on average during the four weeks ending November 1.
Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin commented on the economic outlook on Tuesday, noting that the labor market appears more balanced, with firms reporting improved worker availability and recent layoffs signalling the need for caution. Barkin said inflation doesn't seem to be rising, but it's also unclear whether it will return to the Fed's 2% target. He emphasized that, without more decisive data, it remains difficult to reach a broad policy consensus.
The Euro (EUR) attempts to hold ground against the US Dollar due to the cautious sentiment surrounding the near-term European Central Bank's (ECB) monetary policy outlook. The ECB is widely expected to keep rates unchanged, supported by stable economic performance and inflation near target.
Euro FAQs
The Euro is the currency for the 20 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%).
The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB's primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates - or the expectation of higher rates - will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde.
Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB's 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money.
Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone's economy.
Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
Last updated
: 2025.11.19
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EUR/JPY softens to near 180.00 on intervention fears
The EUR/JPY cross loses ground to near 180.00 during the early European session on Wednesday. The Japanese Yen (JPY) strengthens against the Euro (EUR) amid speculations that Japanese authorities would step into the market to stem further weakness in the domestic currency.
New
2025.11.19 13:48Gold holds steady around $4,070 area as traders await FOMC minutes for rate-cut cues
Gold (XAU/USD) trades with a mild positive bias for the second straight day on Wednesday and looks to build on the previous day's bounce from levels just below the $4,000 psychological mark, or a one-and-a-half-week low.
New
2025.11.19 13:33GBP/USD loses ground below 1.3150 ahead of UK CPI data
GBP/USD remains subdued for the fourth consecutive session, trading around 1.3130 during the Asian hours on Wednesday. Traders await the United Kingdom (UK) Consumer Price Index (CPI), PPI Core Output, and Retail Price Index data for October due later in the day.
New
2025.11.19 13:24WTI drifts lower to near $60.50 as US crude inventories rise, sanction risks in focus
West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US crude oil benchmark, is trading around $60.50 during the Asian trading hours on Tuesday. The WTI edges lower amid a rise in US crude inventories.
New
2025.11.19 12:56EUR/USD stays silent below 1.1600 as Fed rate cut bets recede
EUR/USD moves little after three days of losses, trading around 1.1580 during the Asian hours on Wednesday. The pair may further lose ground as the US Dollar (USD) gains amid declining US Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cut bets for December.
New
2025.11.19 12:22Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD bulls have the upper hand while above $49.35 pivotal support
Silver (XAG/USD) reverses a modest Asian session dip to levels below the $50.00 psychological mark and looks to build on the previous day's bounce from an over one-week low.
New
2025.11.19 11:36USD/CAD gains near 1.4000 as Oil prices drop, Fed rate cut bets ease
USD/CAD rebounds after registering 0.5% losses in the previous session, trading around 1.4000 during the Asian hours on Wednesday. The pair appreciates as the commodity-linked Canadian Dollar (CAD) comes under downward pressure amid lower crude Oil prices.
New
2025.11.19 11:25Japanese Yen hangs near multi-month low against USD amid fiscal concerns, BoJ uncertainty
The Japanese Yen (JPY) oscillates in a range during the Asian session on Wednesday and remains close to its lowest level since late February, touched against the US Dollar (USD) the previous day.
New
2025.11.19 11:20UK CPI expected to moderate in October, still well above the BoE's target
The United Kingdom (UK) Office for National Statistics (ONS) publishes the highly relevant Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for October on Wednesday at 07:00 GMT. The market consensus anticipates some moderation of inflationary pressures.
New
2025.11.19 11:15US Dollar Index posts modest gains above 99.50 ahead of FOMC Minutes
The US Dollar Index (DXY), an index of the value of the US Dollar (USD) measured against a basket of six world currencies, trades with mild gains around 99.60 during the Asian session on Tuesday. Traders might prefer to wait on the sidelines ahead of the FOMC Minutes on Wednesday.
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2025.11.19 11:03Disclaimer:
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