AUD/JPY Price Forecast: Bullish momentum holds above EMA near 100.50

• AUD/JPY softens to around 100.85 in Monday's Asian session. 
• A constructive outlook prevails above the 100-day EMA, with the bullish RSI indicator.
• The immediate resistance level is seen at 101.75; the crucial downside target is located at 100.00. 

The AUD/JPY cross loses ground near 100.85 during the early European session on Monday. The potential downside for the cross might be limited as the stronger-than-expected Australian employment data reinforced expectations for a cautious stance from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). 

Additionally, Japan's Cabinet Office showed on Monday that the Japanese economy contracted by an annualized 1.8% in the third quarter (Q3) of 2025, the first decline in six quarters. The report has reduced market expectations for a Bank of Japan (BoJ) rate hike in December, which weighs on the Japanese Yen (JPY) and creates a tailwind for the cross. 

Technically, AUD/JPY keeps the bullish vibe in the longer term as the cross is well-supported above the key 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) on the daily chart. The upward momentum is reinforced by the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI), which stands above the midline near 58.10. This suggests that the path of least resistance is to the upside. 

On the bright side, the key upside barrier for the cross emerges at 101.75, the upper boundary of the Bollinger Band. Sustained trading above the mentioned level could see a rally to 102.30, the high of November 8, 2024. The next hurdle to watch is 103.48, the high of April 26, 2024. 

On the downside, the 100.00 psychological level acts as a key support level for AUD/JPY. More bearish candlesticks below the mentioned level could pull the cross back toward 98.97, the low of November 7. Further south, the next contention level to spot is 98.60, the lower limit of the Bollinger Band.

AUD/JPY Daily Chart