US: Government shutdown ends but another looms in January - UOB Group

After a record 6-week (43-days) government shutdown, on Wed (12 Nov), the US House of Representatives voted 222 to 209 to pass the interim funding bill to reopen the US government, which President Trump signed into law on the same day. The bill drew opposition from most Democrat House policymakers because it did not include their core demand that started the shutdown fight: the renewal of expiring subsidies for the Affordable Care Act (Obamacare) health insurance premiums, UOB Group's Senior Economist Alvin Liew reports.

A record shutdown comes to an end for now

"US Government Shutdown Ends Temporarily: After a record 6-week (43-days) shutdown, the US government reopened with an interim funding bill passed by the House (222-209) and signed by President Trump on 12 Nov. The bill excludes Democrats' key demand to renew Affordable Care Act subsidies, setting up another potential shutdown after 30 Jan 2026."

"Recovery will not be immediate -- delays expected in food aid, payroll processing, environmental permits, and air travel normalization. Key economic data releases (jobs, CPI, GDP) remain uncertain, with October reports possibly never published, leaving policymakers with limited visibility."

"Growth Outlook & Risks: CBO estimated a 1.5ppt hit to 4Q GDP, offset by a 2.2ppt rebound in 1Q 2026. We have revised our US GDP growth projections with 2025 GDP growth lowered to 1.5% (from 1.7%), 2026 raised to 1.7% (from 1.5%). Risk of another prolonged shutdown after 30 Jan could disrupt sectors like aviation and impair next year's recovery."