When are the RBNZ Inflation Expectations, and how could they impact NZD/USD?

RBNZ Inflation Expectations overview

Quarterly business managers' survey results, collected and released by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ), give a rough aggregate overview of where New Zealand operators expect inflation rates to land within the next two years. The inflation expectations measure can sometimes be volatile and experience brief deviations from the actual trajectory of inflation, but it generally follows the real inflation rate over time.

RBNZ Business Inflation Expectations last clocked in a sharp bounce to 2.8% for the third quarter, and New Zealand Dollar (NZD) traders will be looking out for Q4's release to see where NZ businesses expect inflation to be near the end of 2027.

How could RBNZ Inflation Expectations influence NZD/USD? 

Inflation tends to be a self-fulfilling prophecy, and business operators may be prone to revealing their expectations for changes in the prices of their own products over the next two years through inflation expectations surveys. With the RBNZ at the mercy of inflation pressures on New Zealand's natural rate of interests, a continued march higher in business-level inflation expectations may see the NZD find a fresh technical boost as Kiwi traders reposition themselves for fewer interest rate cuts in the future, or even interest rate hikes, than expected. On the flip side, declining inflation expectations could pave the way for an increase in the pace of RBNZ interest rate cuts, which could depreciate the NZD even further.