Gold rises despite easing Fed cut bets, US Dollar recovery

• Gold trades near $4,092 as markets reduce bets on a December Fed amid a US Dollar rebound.
• US Senate advances a bipartisan bill to end the shutdown, with optimism from President Trump.
• Weaker US data stokes recession fears; traders price 67% chance of Fed easing next month.

Gold price rallies over 2% on Monday as investors increases bets on a Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cut at the December meeting. Meanwhile, news of a possible reopening of the US government pushed the Greenback higher, yet the yellow-metal buyers remain reluctant to give way to earlier gains. At the time of writing, XAU/USD trades at $4,092.

Bullion rallies over 2% to start the week, buoyed by easing expectations, optimism over US government reopening

On the weekend, the US Senate approved a measure paving the way for the reopening of the federal government, with support from several Democratic lawmakers. President Donald Trump welcomed the move, saying it looks "like we're getting very close to the shutdown ending."

Recent news revealed that the leader of the Republicans in the Senate John Thune commented that he hopes the stopgap funding vote will be held within hours. At the same time, House Speaker Mike Johnson is seeking a vote on the stopgap bill for Wednesday, according to The Wall Street Journal.

Last week's data showed that the US economy has begun to show some cracks, following the Challenger's report and the University of Michigan (UoM) Consumer Sentiment data. This has kept the chances for a Fed rate cut at the December meeting at around 61%, compared to 66.8% a week ago, according to the CME Fedwatch Tool, amid Fed Chair Jerome Powell's hawkish press conference following October 29 decision.

Daily market movers: Gold unfazed by strong US Dollar

• The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the performance of the American currency against other six, recovers and gains over 0.12% to 99.67.
• US Treasury yields with the 10-year Treasury note yield stabilized, edges up two basis points, remains steady at 4.115%. US real yields -- which correlate inversely to Gold prices -- climb nearly two basis points to 1.832%.
• St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem said the US economy has shown resilience, noting that inflation remains "closer to 3% than 2%." Earlier, San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly remarked that inflation in goods prices has been "pretty contained," adding that recent rate cuts have supported the labor market but also placed some upward pressure on inflation.
• The University of Michigan's Consumer Sentiment Index fell sharply to 50.3 in November from 53.6 in October, signaling weaker household confidence. The survey showed one-year inflation expectations edged higher to 4.7% from 4.6%, while the five-year outlook eased to 3.6% from 3.9%.
• The World Gold Council revealed that Gold ETFs recorded inflows of 54.9 tonnes in October.
• US employers announced more than 150,000 job cuts in October, marking the largest reduction for that month in over two decades, according to data from Challenger, Gray & Christmas. The report highlighted that industries implementing AI-driven transformations accounted for much of the increase in layoffs.

Technical outlook: Gold price surges, traders target $4,100

Gold's technical picture remains bullish, yet it failed to decisively clear the $4,100 mark, opening the door for some consolidation within the $4,000-$4,100 range. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) shows that bullish momentum is building,

Key resistance lies at $4,100. A breach of the latter will expose October 22 high at $4,161, ahead of $4,200. Conversely, a drop below $4,000 would expose the $3,950, followed by the October 28 low of $3,886.