GBP/JPY Price Forecast: Bulls defend key 200.00 support amid fading momentum

• GBP/JPY trades slightly lower below 201.00, set for a second straight weekly loss.
• Price action hovers around the 50-day SMA while holding above the 100-day SMA and key 200.00 support.
• Momentum indicators point to consolidation with a mild bearish bias.

GBP/JPY trades slightly lower on Friday, hovering around 200.75 at the time of writing, and remains on track for its second consecutive weekly loss. The pair has stabilized after sharp mid-week selling that drove prices to a one-month low, filling the bullish gap from October 6.

On the daily chart, the cross is currently testing the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) near 201.00 while holding just above the 100-day SMA at 199.70, which aligns closely with the weekly low around 199.00.

The immediate support zone lies at 200.00- 200.50, a region that previously acted as resistance and now serves as a key floor. Holding above this zone keeps the broader bias constructive, while a decisive break below 200.00 could hand near-term control to sellers and open the door for a deeper pullback toward 199.00 and 198.50.

On the upside, the 21-day SMA around 202.25 acts as the first resistance, followed by 203.50. A sustained move above these levels would signal renewed bullish momentum.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers near 46, reflecting neutral momentum with a mild bearish tilt as buyers struggle to regain control. Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains below its signal line with the histogram still in negative territory, confirming fading bullish momentum and a cautious tone in the near term.

Together, these indicators suggest consolidation around current levels with bears holding a slight edge unless the pair reclaims the 21-day SMA at 202.25.