EU Gas market faces winter risk amid heavy shorting - ING

Turning to Natural Gas, the latest positioning data shows that investment funds cut their net long in TTF by 24.8TWh over the last week to 21.4TWh, the smallest net long held since March 2024, ING's commodity experts Ewa Manthey and Warren Patterson note.

Investors boost EU carbon allowance positions

"In fact, the investment fund gross short stands at a record high of a little more than 393TWh, despite the European balance remaining vulnerable in the 2025/26 winter, with storage 83% full vs. a five-year average of 92%. The large gross short does leave some positioning risk in the market, particularly if there are any surprises through the heating season."

"Finally, given the strength in the EU allowance (EUAs) market over the last week, it is no surprise that investment funds increased their net long in EUAs by 2.6k contracts to 96.5k contracts - the largest position held since May 2021. And given the further strength seen in EUAs so far this week, it is likely that funds have only increased their net long further. The outlook for the EUA market through 2026 is constructive, with supply set to tighten considerably next year."