GBP/JPY Price Forecast: Bulls guard 200.00 base while momentum stalls below 203.00

• GBP/JPY holds firm amid subdued trading as Japan observes a public holiday.
• Traders adopt a wait-and-see stance ahead of Thursday's BoE interest rate decision.
• Technically, the 21-day SMA at 202.81 acts as an immediate resistance, capping intraday upside attempts.

The British Pound (GBP) holds firm against the Japanese Yen (JPY) on Monday amid holiday-thinned trading in Japan, with investors likely to refrain from large directional bets ahead of the Bank of England (BoE) interest rate decision due on Thursday. At the time of writing, GBP/JPY trades around 202.45, easing slightly from the intraday high of 202.79.

From a technical perspective, the pair bounced last week after testing a critical confluence zone near the 200.00 psychological handle, which aligns with the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and a horizontal support that previously acted as resistance. This area continues to act as a key floor for the cross, keeping the broader uptrend intact.

However, the 21-day SMA at 202.81 is capping immediate upside attempts, acting as a near-term barrier for bulls. A decisive break above this dynamic resistance could open the door toward 204.00, followed by the 205.00 area, which marks both the year-to-date high and the highest level since July 2024.

On the downside, a sustained move below the 200.00 confluence support would expose the pair to renewed bearish pressure, with the next target seen at the October 3 high near 198.87, also coinciding with an unfilled bullish gap from October 6. A daily close below that region could reinforce downside momentum, exposing the next support around 197.50.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers around 53, reflecting a neutral bias as the pair consolidates within its broader bullish structure.