Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD wobbles around $48.70 at the start of US data-packed week

• Silver price trades sideways around $48.70 at the start of the week.
• The US ISM report is expected to show that the Manufacturing PMI slightly improved to 49.2 in October.
• Fed Chair Powell argues against reducing interest rates in December.

Silver price (XAG/USD) consolidates in a tight range around $48.70 during the European trading session on Monday. The white metal starts the week on a calm note as investors await a slew of United States (US) economic data releasing this week.

Major US economic data releases include ISM Manufacturing and Services PMI, and the ADP Employment Change data for October. The US JOLTS Job Openings data for September and the Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data for October won't release due to ongoing federal shutdown.

In Monday's North American session, investors will focus on the US ISM Manufacturing PMI, which is expected to come in at 49.2. Estimated data suggests marginal improvement from September's reading of 49.1; still, a figure below 50.0 is still considered a contraction in the business activity.

Going forward, the major trigger for the Silver price will be market expectations for the Federal Reserve's (Fed) monetary policy action in the December policy meeting. Lately, speculation of one more interest rate cut by the Fed this year has diminished after Chair Jerome Powell argued against further monetary policy easing in December.

Fed's Powell stated in the press conference after the monetary policy announcement on Wednesday that the December cut is "far from assured". Powell clarified that there were "strongly different views" in the meeting, and the takeaway is that "we haven't made a decision about December", Bloomberg reported.

Silver technical analysis

Silver price trades in a tight range around $49.00. The near-term trend of the precious metal appears to be sideways as the precious metal wobbles near the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which trades around $48.70.

The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) trades inside the 40.00-60.00 range, suggesting indecisiveness among investors.

Looking down, the September 23 high of $44.47 would remain a key support. On the upside, the all-time high of $54.50 might act as key barrier.

Silver daily chart