Select Language

USD/CAD maintains position near 1.4000 as expectations for further Fed rate cuts diminish

Breaking news

USD/CAD maintains position near 1.4000 as expectations for further Fed rate cuts diminish

  • X
  • facebook
  • LINE
  • RSS

  • X
  • facebook
  • LINE
  • RSS
New update 2025.10.31 11:42
USD/CAD maintains position near 1.4000 as expectations for further Fed rate cuts diminish

update 2025.10.31 11:42

  • USD/CAD remains steady amid decreasing odds of additional Fed rate cuts.
  • Fed Chair Powell said that another rate cut in December is far from certain.
  • The Canadian Dollar could gain support as the BoC indicated the end of its policy easing.

USD/CAD remains steady after registering gains in the previous session, trading around 1.3980 during the Asian hours on Friday. The pair appreciated as the US Dollar (USD) received support after Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell's comments lowered expectations for further interest rate cuts.

The US Fed delivered a 25-basis-point rate cut on Wednesday, lowering its benchmark rate to a range of 3.75%-4.0% in a 10-2 vote. The decision was not unanimous, as Fed Governor Stephen Miran supported a larger 50-basis-point cut, while Kansas City Fed President Jeffrey Schmid voted to keep rates unchanged.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell noted that the central bank is struggling to balance its dual mandate of controlling inflation and supporting employment due to limited data availability amid the ongoing US government shutdown. Powell cautioned that policymakers may have to adopt a wait-and-see approach until official data reporting resumes. He also added that another rate cut in December is far from certain, emphasizing that the outlook remains uncertain.

The USD/CAD pair could face headwinds as the Canadian Dollar (CAD) may receive support from signs that the Bank of Canada (BoC) may be ending its policy easing cycle. The BoC lowered its interest rate by 25 basis points, bringing its policy rate down to 2.25%. The central bank described this level as "about right if inflation and activity evolve as projected," hinting that the latest cut may signal the end of its easing cycle.

Canadian Dollar FAQs

The key factors driving the Canadian Dollar (CAD) are the level of interest rates set by the Bank of Canada (BoC), the price of Oil, Canada's largest export, the health of its economy, inflation and the Trade Balance, which is the difference between the value of Canada's exports versus its imports. Other factors include market sentiment - whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) - with risk-on being CAD-positive. As its largest trading partner, the health of the US economy is also a key factor influencing the Canadian Dollar.

The Bank of Canada (BoC) has a significant influence on the Canadian Dollar by setting the level of interest rates that banks can lend to one another. This influences the level of interest rates for everyone. The main goal of the BoC is to maintain inflation at 1-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively higher interest rates tend to be positive for the CAD. The Bank of Canada can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former CAD-negative and the latter CAD-positive.

The price of Oil is a key factor impacting the value of the Canadian Dollar. Petroleum is Canada's biggest export, so Oil price tends to have an immediate impact on the CAD value. Generally, if Oil price rises CAD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Oil falls. Higher Oil prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance, which is also supportive of the CAD.

While inflation had always traditionally been thought of as a negative factor for a currency since it lowers the value of money, the opposite has actually been the case in modern times with the relaxation of cross-border capital controls. Higher inflation tends to lead central banks to put up interest rates which attracts more capital inflows from global investors seeking a lucrative place to keep their money. This increases demand for the local currency, which in Canada's case is the Canadian Dollar.

Macroeconomic data releases gauge the health of the economy and can have an impact on the Canadian Dollar. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the CAD. A strong economy is good for the Canadian Dollar. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Canada to put up interest rates, leading to a stronger currency. If economic data is weak, however, the CAD is likely to fall.


Date

Created

 : 2025.10.31

Update

Last updated

 : 2025.10.31

Related articles


Show more

FXStreet

Financial media

arrow
FXStreet

FXStreet is a forex information website, delivering market analysis and news articles 24/7.
It features a number of articles contributed by well-known analysts, in addition to the ones by its editorial team.
Founded in 2000 by Francesc Riverola, a Spanish economist, it has grown to become a world-renowned information website.

Was this article helpful?

We hope you find this article useful. Any comments or suggestions will be greatly appreciated.  
We are also looking for writers with extensive experience in forex and crypto to join us.

please contact us at [email protected].

Thank you for your feedback.
Thank you for your feedback.

Most viewed

NZD/USD dives further, nears 0.5700 on weak Chinese data, risk aversion

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) is trading lower for the third consecutive day on Friday, trading at 1.1720 at the time of writing and on track for a 0.45% weekly decline, after having been rejected at 0.5800 earlier in the week.
New
update2025.10.31 17:45

EUR/USD hovers near lows with Eurozone inflation on tap

EUR/USD shows marginal losses on Friday's early European session, trading at 1.1560 at the time of writing after being rejected at the 1.1580 area.
New
update2025.10.31 17:28

ECB's Kazaks: Signals no urgency for monetary policy adjustments

European Central Bank (ECB) policymaker and Governor of Central Bank of Latvia, Martins Kazaks, said during European trading session that risks to inflation and growth in the Eurozone are more balanced.
New
update2025.10.31 17:25

ECB's Muller: Economic situation improves gradually

European Central Bank's (ECB) economist Georg Müller commented during Friday's European session that current level of interest rates is appropriate and the economic situation has gradually improved.
New
update2025.10.31 17:16

Pound Sterling struggles as UK productivity downgrade prompts tax raise risks

The Pound Sterling (GBP) stays under pressure against its major peers on Friday.
New
update2025.10.31 17:07

ECB's Rehn: There are both upside and downside risks to inflation and growth

European Central Bank (ECB) Governing Council member and Governor of Bank of Finland Olli Rehn said during the European session on Friday that the decision by the Eurozone central bank to leave interest rates unchanged was justified.
New
update2025.10.31 16:46

Forex Today: US Dollar clings to weekly gains as central bank dust settles

Here is what you need to know on Friday, October 31:
New
update2025.10.31 16:42

When is the Eurozone Prelim HICP inflation and how could it affect EUR/USD?

Eurostat will publish the preliminary Eurozone Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) data for October later on Friday at 10:00 GMT.
New
update2025.10.31 16:40

Crude oil price today: WTI price bearish at European opening

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil price falls on Friday, early in the European session. WTI trades at $60.07 per barrel, down from Thursday's close at $60.12.Brent Oil Exchange Rate (Brent crude) is also shedding ground, trading at $63.95 after its previous daily close at $64.00.
New
update2025.10.31 16:07

USD/CAD Price Forecast: Tests 1.4000 barrier after breaking above nine-day EMA

USD/CAD extends its gains for the second successive session, trading around 1.3990 during the early European hours on Friday. The technical analysis of the daily chart indicates a price consolidation, with the USD/CAD pair rebounding from the lower boundary of its rectangle pattern.
New
update2025.10.31 15:51

Disclaimer:arw

All information and content provided on this website is provided for informational purposes only and is not intended to solicit any investment. Although all efforts are made in order to ensure that the information is correct, no guarantee is provided for the accuracy of any content on this website. Any decision made shall be the responsibility of the investor and Myforex does not take any responsibility whatsoever regarding the use of any information provided herein.

The content provided on this website belongs to Myforex and, where stated, the relevant licensors. All rights are reserved by Myforex and the relevant licensors, and no content of this website, whether in full or in part, shall be copied or displayed elsewhere without the explicit written permission of the relevant copyright holder. If you wish to use any part of the content provided on this website, please ensure that you contact Myforex.

  • Facebook
  • Twitter
  • LINE

Myforex uses cookies to improve the convenience and functionality of this website. This website may include cookies not only by us but also by third parties (advertisers, log analysts, etc.) for the purpose of tracking the activities of users. Cookie policy

I agree
share
Share
Cancel