USD/CAD holds firm above 1.4000 as US inflation data bolsters Fed easing bets

• US inflation comes in slightly below expectations, reinforcing bets on upcoming Fed monetary easing.
• The US Dollar edges lower, while the Canadian Dollar remains subdued.
• USD/CAD remains firm above 1.4000 following the US inflation data release.

USD/CAD trades higher around 1.4020 on Friday at the time of writing, up 0.20% on the day, holding firm above the 1.4000 mark despite the pullback following the release of the US Consumer Price Index (CPI). Data from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics showed that consumer prices rose by 0.3% MoM in September, slightly below expectations of 0.4%, while the annual inflation rate climbed to 3% from 2.9%, just under forecasts of 3.1%.

Core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy components, also eased to 0.2% on a monthly basis and 3% YoY, both below market expectations. These figures suggest a gradual moderation in inflationary pressures, strengthening market expectations of an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve (Fed) at the December meeting, while a rate cut next week is already fully priced.

The US Dollar Index (DXY) dips 0.12% to 98.80 following the release, as investors price in a closer monetary easing cycle. However, the weakness of the Canadian Dollar (CAD) limits the downside in the USD/CAD exchange rate.

The combination of a softer but still resilient US Dollar (USD) and a commodity-linked Canadian Dollar under pressure allows the USD/CAD pair to maintain a firm position above the psychological 1.4000 threshold. Investors remain focused on upcoming Federal Reserve guidance and Oil price developments, two key factors likely to shape the pair's near-term direction.