Copper: Is it the beginning of Copper's bull run? - ING

The mood on metals has been positive in recent weeks, with Copper trading near all-time highs and other metals also rising. A supportive macro backdrop, falling US dollar, rate cuts and low inventories have lifted metals prices, ING's commodity expert Ewa Manthey notes.

Near-term demand indicators remain mixed

"Copper is the standout performer in the base metals complex. Prices surged more than 20% year-to-date despite concerns that trade frictions would undermine global growth. The surge in Copper prices comes as the US Federal Reserve has begun its monetary easing cycle. Supply disruptions are stacking up, most recently Freeport's declaration of force majeure at its giant Grasberg mine in Indonesia. Grasberg is the world's second-largest Copper mine, contributing around 4% of global production. The disruption adds to the already high number of supply disruptions this year."

"Macro uncertainty, particularly around US-China trade negotiations and its implications on Copper demand, continues to cloud the near-term demand outlook. Yet the long-term bullish narrative remains intact for the base metal, supported by structural demand from grid, electrification and renewable infrastructure and, increasingly, from data centres and AI infrastructure. For now, China is showing some signs of price sensitivity, with mainland smelters planning to step up shipments abroad, Bloomberg recently reported, as higher prices deter domestic buyers."

"While near-term demand indicators remain mixed, supply disruptions will keep a floor under prices around the $10,000/t level. However, to push that rally further, Copper will also need to see strong demand growth, especially from China, the biggest consumer. But in the near term, prices are likely to remain range-bound."