AUD/USD Price Forecast: Rangebound with bearish bias intact below key SMAs

• AUD/USD remains under pressure as the US Dollar strengthens across the board
• AUD/USD consolidates between 0.6480 and 0.6520 following a Head-and-Shoulders breakdown.
• The pair remains capped below 50-day and 100-day SMAs, keeping short-term bias bearish.

The Australian Dollar (AUD) trades on the back foot against the US Dollar (USD) on Tuesday, weighed down by broad-based Greenback strength amid cautious optimism that the US-China trade conflict could ease.

At the time of writing, AUD/USD trades near 0.6491, down roughly 0.30% on the day. Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback's value against a basket of six major currencies, is hovering around one-week highs near 98.93, extending gains for the third straight day.

From a technical perspective, AUD/USD continues to consolidate in a narrow range between 0.6480 and 0.6520, following a confirmed Head-and-Shoulders breakdown on the daily chart. The pair remains capped below both the 50-day and 100-day Simple Moving Averages (SMAs), reinforcing the bearish bias.

Repeated lower-wick shadows on recent candles suggest dip-buying interest, yet momentum remains weak. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) holds near 41.5, indicating subdued bullish momentum and room for further downside before oversold conditions emerge. Meanwhile, the Average Directional Index (ADX) stands around 20.7, signaling a lack of a strong trend.

On the downside, immediate support is located at the base of the current range, around 0.6480. A decisive break below this level would expose 0.6450, which closely aligns with last week's low and marks the next key support. A sustained move beneath that area could confirm renewed bearish momentum, opening the door toward 0.6415, the August 22 low, and potentially beyond.

On the upside, initial resistance is seen near 0.6535, which coincides with the 100-day SMA. A sustained move above this level would challenge the 0.6550-0.6560 area, aligned with the 50-day SMA and the neckline of the earlier Head-and-Shoulders pattern. A daily close beyond that zone could shift the near-term bias to neutral, opening the path toward 0.6600.

Overall, AUD/USD maintains a bearish-to-neutral outlook, with sellers likely defending rallies while the pair trades below key moving averages.