When are the UK data releases and how could they affect GBP/USD?

UK Jobs Report Overview

The United Kingdom (UK) docket has the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and Industrial Production data for August to be released by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) on Thursday, later this session at 06:00 GMT.

UK Gross Domestic Product is expected to increase by 0.1% month-over-month (MoM) in August, against the 0% reading in July.

UK Industrial Production may rise 0.2% MoM in August, after declining 0.9% in July. Meanwhile, the annual production could fall 0.6% in the same month, following a 0.1% increase prior.

How could UK GDP, Industrial Production data affect GBP/USD?

GBP/USD may extend its gains if the UK economy shows expansion in August, which could ease the odds of the Bank of England (BoE) further rate cuts in the remaining year. Any contraction could lead to an increase in the likelihood of easing monetary policy, following mixed UK labor market figures for the three months ending in August. Traders will watch UK Industrial Production closely, a key gauge of manufacturing strength, with Manufacturing Production data due later today. Money markets are pricing in a 46-basis-point (bps) interest rate reduction by the BoE in the remaining two monetary policy meetings this year, per Reuters.

The GBP/USD pair also draws support as the US Dollar (USD) struggles amid market caution, driven by the escalating United States (US)-China trade tensions, the world's two largest economies. US President Donald Trump said on Wednesday that he saw the US as in a trade war with China, even as Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent proposed a longer pause on high tariffs on Chinese goods to resolve a conflict over critical minerals.

Technically, the GBP/USD pair trades around 1.3420 at the time of writing, with the immediate barrier appearing at the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) of 1.3451. A break above this level would support the pair to explore the region around the three-month high of 1.3726, reached on September 17. On the downside, the immediate support lies at the psychological level of 1.3400, followed by the nine-day EMA at 1.3390. Further decline below this confluence support zone would prompt the pair to test the two-month low of 1.3248.