GBP/JPY snaps losing streak as Cable traders jostle for position

• GBP/JPY pumped the brakes near the 203.00 handle on Monday.
• Markets are waiting for the return of US money flows after a long weekend.
• Key UK labor data looms ahead on Tuesday, Yen data docket remains thin this week.

GBP/JPY roiled on Monday, churning chart paper near the 203.00 handle after arresting a two-day backslide from 15-month highs above 205.00. The Guppy pair is still holding well on the high end of a near-term bullish surge that has the Pound Sterling (GBP) up over 2% against the Japanese Yen (JPY) in October.

This week's economic data docket on the Japanese side remains thin and and limited, but Pound traders will be facing down the latest labor data updates from the UK on Tuesday. GBP markets are hoping that the UK's 3-month ILO Unemployment Rate will hold at 4.7% in September.

The Bank of England (BoE) has been steadily cutting its interest rate since Q3 2024, delivering a steady stream of three interest rate cuts through 2025, and the UK's central bank is broadly expected to deliver further rate cuts through the end of the year and into 2026 as the BoE grapples with a lopsided economic stop-and-start. This week's labor data reading will provide GBP traders with a fresh take on the state of the UK economy before fine-tuning rate cut expectations.

GBP/JPY price forecast

The GBP/JPY daily chart has shown a clear shift in momentum over the past two weeks. After sliding below the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) in late September, the pair found support near 197.00 and staged a strong rebound. The rally accelerated once price reclaimed the 50-day EMA around 199.85, pushing quickly toward 205.00 before easing back.

The recent pullback looks more like a pause than a full reversal. Price is holding above the 50-day EMA, suggesting that buyers remain in control for now. The 200-day EMA, down near 196.77, continues to slope upward, providing longer-term trend support.

Short-term sentiment leans bullish while the pair trades above 200.00, but traders will be watching to see if GBP/JPY can clear resistance near 205.00 again. A decisive move through that level could open the door to a retest of the summer highs, while a close back below 199.50 would signal fading momentum and a possible return to the broader range.

GBP/JPY daily chart