AUD/JPY Price Forecast: Keep bullish vibe above 100.00, overbought RSI warrants caution for bulls

• AUD/JPY trades flat around 100.35 in Friday's early European session. 
• The cross keeps the bullish view, but the overbought RSI condition might cap its upside. 
• The key resistance level is seen in the 100.95-101.00 region; the initial support level is located at 99.16.

The AUD/JPY cross holds steady near 100.35 during the early European session on Friday. The newly elected leader of Japan's ruling party, Sanae Takaichi, raises concerns about an increase in fiscal spending in Japan and prompts traders to reduce bets that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will hike interest rates this month. This could weigh on the Japanese Yen (JPY) against the Australian Dollar (AUD). 

However, some verbal intervention from Japan's Finance Minister Kato earlier this Friday might cap the downside for the JPY in the near term. 

According to the daily chart, the positive view of AUD/JPY remains in place as the cross is well-supported above the key 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA). However, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands above the midline near 73.65, indicating the overbought RSI condition. This suggests that further consolidation or a temporary sell-off cannot be ruled out before positioning for any near-term AUD/JPY appreciation.

On the bright side, the first upside barrier for the cross emerges in the 100.95-101.00 zone, representing the high of October 9 and a psychological mark. Further north, the next hurdle is seen at 102.30, the high of November 8, 2024. Sustained trading above the mentioned level could see a rally to 103.48, the high of April 26, 2024. 

On the downside, the initial support level for AUD/JPY is located at 99.16, the low of October 7. The additional downside filter to watch is 98.35, the high of September 15. Any follow-through selling below this level could expose 96.50, the 100-day EMA. 

AUD/JPY daily chart