USD/CHF Price Forecast: Refreshes monthly high near 0.8040

• USD/CHF jumps to near 0.8040, the highest level seen in a month.
• Investors await Fed Powell's speech to get fresh cues on the monetary policy outlook.
• The SNB is unlikely to push interest rates into negative territory.

The USD/CHF pair posts a fresh monthly high near 0.8040 during the European trading session on Thursday. The Swiss Franc pair trades firmly as the US Dollar (USD) trades close to its two-month high ahead of the speech from Federal Reserve's (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell at 12:30 GMT.

During the European session, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback's value against six major currencies, trades firmly near 99.00.

Investors will pay close attention to Fed Powell's speech to get cues about how much the United States (US) central bank will cut interest rates further in the remaining year.

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes of the September policy meeting showed on Wednesday that officials that it would likely be appropriate to ease policy further over the remainder of 2025 as downside risks to employment to have increased.

Meanwhile, the Swiss Franc (CHF) trades broadly firm as investors expect that the Swiss National Bank (SNB) will not push interest rates into negative territory.

USD/CHF holds above the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which trades around 0.7975, suggesting that the near-term trend is bullish.

However, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) wobbles inside the 40.00-60.00 range, suggesting a sharp volatility contraction.

A further recovery move by the pair above the August 1 high of 0.8170 will open the room for more upside towards the June 19 high of 0.8215, followed by the June 6 high of 0.8248.

In an alternate scenario, the pair could slide towards 0.7800, if it breaks below the September 17 low of 0.7829.

USD/CHF daily chart