Created
: 2025.10.09
2025.10.09 18:02
The ECB's September meeting account is due today, likely reaffirming policymakers' view that monetary settings remain "in a good place" after holding rates steady at 2.00%. With inflation seen stabilizing near target and risks now balanced, markets price only limited chances of another cut. By contrast, expectations for deeper Fed easing over the next year highlight a growing policy divergence that continues to favor EUR/USD upside. Meanwhile, signs of political stabilization in France are lending modest support to local assets, BBH FX analysts report.
"The ECB's Account of the September 10-11 policy meeting is published today (12:30pm London, 7:30am New York). At that meeting, the ECB left the policy rate steady at 2.00% for a third consecutive meeting (widely expected) and signaled that monetary policy settings remain in a "good place." The ECB stressed that risks to the economic outlook are now balanced rather than to the downside and implied greater confidence that inflation is stabilizing around its 2% target."
"The swaps market continues to price-in about 50% odds that the ECB delivers one more 25bps cut in the next 12 months and the policy rate to bottom at 1.75%. We think the ECB is done easing. Meanwhile, futures fully price-in 100bps of Fed funds rate cut over the next 12 months. The risk is the Fed eases more because the US employment backdrop is increasingly fragile. Bottom line: relative ECB/Fed policy stance underpins the uptrend in EUR/USD."
"France's political crisis is on a fragile stability path. French President Emmanuel Macron said he'll name a new prime minister by Friday evening. A statement by the Elysee presidential office noted that "A majority of deputies oppose dissolution (of parliament); a platform for stability exists; a path is possible to adopt a budget by December 31." French bonds and stocks are posting modest gains."
Created
: 2025.10.09
Last updated
: 2025.10.09
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