Gold blazes past $4,000 to all-time highs ahead of Fed Minutes

• XAU/USD surges above $4,050, marking a 54% yearly gain as safe haven demand intensifies.
• US government shutdown halts key data releases, keeping traders focused on upcoming Fed speeches and FOMC Minutes.
• Geopolitical tensions persist despite progress in Middle East peace talks.

Gold price rally extends for the third consecutive trading session in the week, hitting a record high of $4,056 a troy ounce, up over 1.70% on the day. Geopolitical uncertainty about the US government shutdown and expectations of lower US interest rates sustains flows into the yellow metal, which is up 54% year to date.

Bullion extends three-day rally

The lack of economic data releases due to the US government being closed keeps traders leaning on speeches by Federal Reserve (Fed) officials as the US government entered its eighth day of shutdown.

The St. Louis Fed's Alberto Musalem and Fed Governor Michael Barr failed to deliver market moving remarks as they refused to talk about monetary policy and the economic outlook. Later, speeches by the Minneapolis Fed's Neel Kashkari, the Dallas Fed's Lorie Logan and Barr once more are awaited. These will arrive alongside the release of the last Meeting Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC).

Geopolitics is also playing its role, yet hopes of ending the Israel-Gaza war have increased as negotiations continued in Egypt. Hostilities between Russia and Ukraine continue apace.

Daily digest market movers: Gold aims higher as US yields slide

• Gold rallies despite the ongoing strength of the Greenback. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the performance of the buck's value against a basket of six currencies, is up 0.45% at 99.00.
• US Treasury yields retreat as the 10-year Treasury note is down one-and-a-half basis points at 4.113%. US real yields -- which correlate inversely to Gold prices --  are also down nearly one bps at 1.763%.
• Global Gold ETFs have attracted $64 billion in inflows so far this year, according to data from the World Gold Council. September alone saw a record $17.3 billion, underscoring robust investor demand for the precious metal.
• Goldman Sachs revised it 2026 forecast for Gold prices from $4,300 to $4,900, citing strong flows into Gold ETFs and central bank demand. The People's Bank of China (PBoC) added Bullion to its reserves in September for the eleventh straight month.
• Money markets indicate that the Fed will cut interest rates by 25 basis points (bps) at the upcoming October 29 meeting. The odds stand at 94%, according to the Prime Market Terminal interest rate probability tool.

Technical outlook: Gold price surges past $4,000, eyes on $4,100

Gold's rally is set to extend past the current all-time high of $4,059 even though the Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains in overbought territory. The RSI is still shy of reaching the 90 level, the most extreme among ongoing strong trends.

If Gold clears $4,100, the next resistance would be $4,150, followed by $4,200. Conversely, XAU/USD first support would be $4,000. A breach of the latter will expose the October 7 daily low of $3,941, ahead of reaching the monthly low of $3,819.