AUD/JPY Price Forecast: Key upside barrier emerges near 100.00, eyes on overbought RSI

• AUD/JPY softens around 99.45 in Tuesday's early European session. 
• The cross keeps the bullish view, but the overbought RSI condition might cap its upside. 
• The key resistance level is seen at 100.00; the initial support level is located at 98.22. 

The AUD/JPY cross trades on a negative note near 99.45 during the early European session on Tuesday. The Japanese Yen (JPY) recovers slightly against the Australian Dollar (AUD) after reaching its lowest since November 2024. The potential downside for the cross might be limited as Sanae Takaichi's victory caused traders to reduce bets that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will hike interest rates this month. 

According to the daily chart, the positive view of AUD/JPY remains in place as the cross is well-supported above the key 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA). However, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands above the midline near 70.35, indicating the overbought RSI condition. This suggests that further consolidation or a temporary sell-off cannot be ruled out before positioning for any near-term AUD/JPY appreciation.

On the bright side, the key upside barrier for the cross emerges at the 100.00 psychological level. Further north, the next hurdle is seen at 101.56, the high of November 20, 2024. A decisive break above this level could pick up more momentum and aim for 102.30, the high of November 8, 2024

On the other hand, the initial support level for AUD/JPY is located at 98.22, the low of October 6. Any follow-through selling below this level could expose 97.28, the low of September 24. The additional downside filter to watch is 96.70, the lower limit of the Bollinger Band. 

AUD/JPY daily chart