Oil rises on OPEC's modest output hike - ING

ICE Brent was trading above $65/bbl while NYMEX WTI was seen approaching $62/bbl this morning, amid a modest OPEC+ production increase for November and higher geopolitical risks. Recent reports suggest that Ukraine claims to have attacked one of Russia's largest oil refineries, Kinef oil refinery, which holds an annual processing capacity of over 20mt. The attack took place over the weekend (the second time in a month), as Ukraine continues to put pressure on Russia's energy infrastructure, ING's commodity experts Ewa Manthey and Warren Patterson note.

OPEC+ to boost crude oil production in November

"Meanwhile, OPEC+ agreed to boost crude oil production by 137k b/d in November (similar to last month), in contrast to markets expecting a more aggressive reintroduction of supply. The group remains cautious about increasing its production share in the global oil market on predictions of an upcoming supply surplus in the fourth quarter as well as next year. Last month, the IEA also predicted a record oil surplus for next year, primarily on rising OPEC+ supply."

"Baker Hughes data shows that the US oil rig count saw its first weekly decline in six weeks following a weekly drop in crude oil prices. Recent data shows that crude oil rigs declined by two to 422 active rigs last week. While this is a very marginal decline, it does suggest that drilling activity may be stabilising on growing concerns over a supply glut and fears that a prolonged US shutdown would further hurt oil prices.The overall rig count (oil and gas combined) remains unchanged from last week and stood at 549 in the week ending 3 October 2025. However, it is still down 36 from the same time last year."

"The latest positioning data shows that speculators sold 11,466 lots of ICE Brent for a second consecutive week over the last reporting week, leaving them with a net long position of 209,113 lots, a move predominantly driven by rising gross shorts positions. Meanwhile, the speculative data for NYMEX WTI is not available yet, as the CFTC weekly report was not released due to the ongoing government shutdown in the US."